Thanksgiving week is here, and that means a smorgasbord of mid-week NFL football. While it would be nice to be a little bit hotter entering Week 12, it is easy to get excited about the slate, beginning with Thursday’s triple-header. Before we dive into this week’s quintet of ATS selections, let’s take a step back and examine the progress through 11 weeks and 55 total picks.
- Week 11: 2-3
- 2020 Season: 27-26-2
Come get these winners.
Washington Football Team (+3) over Dallas Cowboys
Thanksgiving football! Catch the fever! Dallas is a touch overvalued after they looked… decent last week. From there, NFC East underdogs are 7-1 against the number in division games this season, and Washington has the better defense by a wide margin. It’s a “hold your nose” play, but that’s okay.
New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 43 points
It is brutal for everyone involved that Joe Burrow is out for the season. That is first and foremost. However, I don’t see how the Bengals score consistently without him, and I’m a believer in the Giants defense. Short fields and mishaps from Cincinnati’s offense could doom us at a low number, but we have to take it.
Atlanta Falcons (+3) over Las Vegas Raiders
I can’t believe I’m giving out the Falcons again, but this is an example of playing the number and the situation, rather than the team. On the look-ahead line, this game was a pick’em. That is what the line should be, and it’s a violent overreaction to get a full field goal with the Falcons at home. I get it. It’s gross. We must do it anyway.
San Francisco 49ers (+7) over Los Angeles Rams
In general, I’ve thought the Rams were undervalued this season. That may be changing after a showcase win last week, and the Niners are a team that can keep this close. Grabbing the full seven is pivotal here, and I don’t endorse the play below that, but that’s where it sits at the time of this post.
Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers UNDER 45
We’ve enjoyed some success with the Bears defense and we’re going back to the well. Having Aaron Rodgers on the other side is at least slightly frightening, but Chicago’s offense is dreadful and I trust their defense. It would’ve been better to snag 45.5 at the open, but the fact that the number ticked down is also probably a good sign.