The Super Bowl arrives on Sunday and as is always the case, it offers the most robust betting card of the year. There are few things I enjoy more than perusing the Super Bowl props sheet, as there are literally thousands of options for betting during The Big Game. However, that also means it can be difficult to parse where value might lie and where to even begin with filling out your card.
That’s where we come in, as we’ve scanned the monstrous list of props from the Westgate SuperBook to pull our favorite bets (and some that we just can’t resist because they’re ridiculous and fun). You can find our official Winners for this week from Brad Rowland here, as he handed out five picks including four props, but we expand on that in this space as sometimes you want to spray the board. As always, don’t get too heavy on props, especially if you’re firing on a lot of different ones, and keep the betting to within your means.
1. Longest TD of the game UNDER 46.5 yards (-110)
These are two teams with some explosive playmakers, but even the Chiefs, with all of there incredible speed, only have two players (Mecole Hardman, Tyreeek Hill) with a catch of 47+ yards this season and don’t have a single run of more than 32. On top of that, without their starting left tackle, I feel like the opportunity to sit back and try the real deep pass plays that take time to develop might not be there as often as KC might like. The Bucs’ longest pass play of the season is 50 yards — four players have at least one 47+ yard reception — and just playing the odds here, it is more likely than not that we don’t have a 47-plus yard touchdown play in this game. There will be some scares as Hill makes a catch in space crossing the field and the Bucs possibly look for bombs to Scottie Miller and Mike Evans, but the odds are in your favor on the Under, even if rooting against explosive plays isn’t as fun.
2. Patrick Mahomes total passing attempts OVER 41.5 (-110)
The Bucs are a really good run defense and I expect the Chiefs to throw the ball a lot and throw short and underneath in lieu of running the ball in this one. Mahomes had 49 pass attempts in their first meeting this year for this reason, and went over this total nine times in the regular season. We’ll be especially helped if the Bucs look to take away big plays and make him work down the field, because some methodical drives with like 8+ passes on them would be tremendous here.
3. Buccaneers to score first (+105)
The Chiefs always defer to the second half if they win the coin toss and the Bucs have taken the ball twice in the playoffs. That means you are very likely going to have Tom Brady on the field for the first possession of the game and at plus value, I like my chances of him at least getting the Bucs into field goal range.
4. Travis Kelce OVER 7.5 receptions (-110)
Kelce has caught eight or more passes in nine of the last 10 games for the Chiefs including in both playoff games. He’s really, really hard to take away and is Mahomes’ favorite target to consistently move the chains or keep things in a manageable down and distance.
5. Mecole Hardman OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
In theory, your biggest concern with the Chiefs receiving corps is keeping Hill from beating you. The Chiefs will likely be aware of this and can look to replicate that same explosiveness but with Hardman, who will get some shovel passes that are “receptions” in end arounds. Plus, all it takes is one crossing route with space for him to go over this total. It’s not a lock, but based on what he’s done this season, the odds are in the Overs favor.
6. Tom Brady longest rush OVER 0.5 yards (-110)
The QB Sneak GOAT getting disrespected here. I expect at least one sneak for a solid yard or two and, because it’s the Super Bowl, it’s possible he’ll be willing to take off to try and get a couple yards. I believe in Tommy Wheels.
7. Leonard Fournette OVER 3.5 receptions (-150)
This is Brad’s favorite prop and I will ride with him on it. The Bucs are going to have to throw the ball and Brady loves him some checkdowns to keep the chains moving and stay in manageable situations. They almost never throw to Ronald Jones so all those running back targets go to Fournette, and given the Chiefs’ speed and aggressiveness in bringing pressure, it wouldn’t surprise me if Byron Leftwich dials up a few screens in this one to try and slow down that Kansas City rush.
8. Mike Evans UNDER 64.5 receiving yards (-110)
Evans is a beast in the red zone and that tends to be where Brady looks to him the most. Tampa likely needing to pass a lot in this game to keep it close worries me some, but Evans’ targets tend to come when the field gets shorter and, for that, we like the Under. It could be very sweaty, or just get crushed outright early. Evans has only gone over this number seven times this season.
9. Kevin Durant points + rebounds vs. 76ers (-6.5, -110) over Darrel Williams rushing yards
Every smart person has the Williams under in this game provided it’s close to 30. Westgate, wisely, has Williams down at 26.5, so we steer clear of that. However, Kevin Durant is averaging 30.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game this season so, if he simply achieves his averages, we’re getting line value on the number Westgate is offering and join the sharps on the Williams under. So, go KD, go.
10. Chiefs-Bucs first quarter points (+7.5) over UNLV-Air Force margin of victory
It is real degenerate hours over here now, and I must preface this by saying that Air Force is a dreadful college basketball team so beware. However, UNLV isn’t exactly good and on the off chance we get a tight one in the great Thomas & Mack Arena, we’re basically getting free money here. So, we need the Planes to take care of business and lose a close one, or else we will be in dire need of fireworks in Tampa.
BONUS TERRIBLE SAVINGS ACCOUNT PROP BET
Denver Broncos points in home games vs. AFC West opponents (+7.5) over Chris Godwin receiving yards
Can we take a moment to talk about how breathtaking this prop is? Imagine making this bet and having to hold onto this ticket until next December, knowing likely by late Sunday night whether you have a chance, and having to be invested in Denver’s three home games against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers? Godwin’s total is 79.5 in this game and last year the Broncos had 78 in those three games. It is a terrible bet, because no one wants to have to be invested in seeing a Drew Lock-led Denver team score points against what should be three solid teams next year, but my goodness I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to show you all the glory that is this bet.