Two of the best offensive teams in the NBA will square off in the first round of the 2021 Western Conference Playoffs when the Denver Nuggets face the Portland Trail Blazers. Both teams are led by top-tier players, with MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic keying Denver’s attack and Damian Lillard manning the point for Portland. As such, points won’t be tough to come by in what should be a highly entertaining series.
With that said, there is much to discuss with this matchup, especially with Denver operating without Jamal Murray for the remainder of the season. The Nuggets are not deploying their best possible roster as a result, while the Blazers finished the regular season with an impressive flourish to snatch the No. 6 seed and avoid the play-in tournament entirely. There are some interesting subplots to follow, and we’ll take a glance at a few of them before things get going this weekend in Denver.
Matchup to watch
The playing field isn’t always level and other factors absolutely will play a part in the result, but sometimes it’s simple: The best player in the series will probably lead his team to victory.
Jokic is the frontrunner for NBA MVP honors for a reason. The talented big man is averaging 26.4 points (with a 64.7 percent true shooting mark), 10.8 rebounds ,and 8.3 assists per game. Somehow, numbers this gaudy don’t even begin to paint the whole picture. Jokic’s advanced statistical profile is off the charts, and the Nuggets are nearly nine points better when he plays (+7.7 per 100) than when he sits (-1.2 per 100).
While Lillard doesn’t quite match what Jokic has done this season, he has a playoff pedigree and an All-NBA case of his own. Lillard is putting up 28.8 points and 7.5 assists per game while maintaining a 62.3 percent true shooting mark, and he can break the drop defensive scheme regularly deployed by the Nuggets.
With Murray sidelined, Jokic has arguably been even better, and Michael Porter Jr. is also a major factor. But while Porter is playing at a star level and the Blazers have a number of players capable of making things happen, but this series still may come down to which No. 1 option performs better.
Series X-factor
The Blazers have a glaring weakness on the defensive end of the floor and, well, there is plenty to discuss on that side of the floor. Portland is absolutely going to have issues trying to defend Jokic and co., but we’ll save that for later. On the offensive end, the Blazers are brilliant and, in addition to the play of Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and others, Portland simply never turns the ball over.
Terry Stotts’ team led the NBA in turnover rate, giving the ball away on only 11.2 percent of their offensive possessions this season. That ball security, combined with high-end shooting efficiency, is a direct pathway to offensive success under the simple formula of maximizing the possession game and simply playing the math.
In the postseason, ball security is always key, especially as things slow down and every possession takes on a heightened meaning. As such, it is key to note that the Nuggets are excellent at creating turnovers. Denver is a top-10 team in the NBA, per Cleaning The Glass, in generating havoc defensively, forcing a turnover on 14.5 percent of their defensive trips. That number even rises, albeit only 0.5 percent, with Murray off the court, and he’s not walking through that door.
It is certainly possible that Denver is unable to rattle Portland’s experienced decision-makers but, in trying to get stops, the Nuggets will be reliant on creating turnovers and grabbing defensive rebounds at a reasonable clip.
One stat to know
The Blazers won 42 games while ranking 29th in the NBA in defense. That is pretty difficult to do, and it means that Portland is: A) elite offensively and, B) able to navigate close games effectively. Still, the Blazers will have a hard time winning this series if they can’t defend at a passable level, and that is where Jusuf Nurkic comes in.
Nurkic is, by far, Portland’s best interior defender. In 880 minutes with Nurkic on the floor, the Blazers have been downright frisky in limiting opponents to just 108.2 points per 100 possessions. When he is off the floor, Portland’s defense is a disaster. In the 2,581 minutes with Nurkic on the bench or sidelined due to injury, the Blazers are allowing 116.6 points per 100 possessions.
Part of the issue is that Nurkic is backed up by Enes Kanter. Part of the issue is that Portland’s perimeter defense is far from elite. Regardless, the Blazers both need Nurkic to stay on the floor and they need to be better when he sits. Otherwise, Jokic and the Nuggets will likely be moving on to round two.