The first round of the Western Conference playoffs this year features a rematch from last year’s bubble playoffs between the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers and fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks. Both teams have top-10 offenses, while the Clippers have a top-10 defense compared to the Mavericks settling in as the 21st-ranked defense on the year.
Last year’s series was tense, going six games and signaling Doncic’s full-on arrival among the league’s best players in almost averaging a triple-double and hitting a game winner in Game that elicited a rare double ‘BANG’ call from Mike Breen.
So can round two live up to last year and will the result be any different? Let’s dive in.
Matchup To Watch
The matchup to watch in this series starts and ends with Luka Doncic vs. the combination of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. It seems highly likely that for every minute he’s on the floor, Doncic is going to be marked by one of Leonard and George. He’s already too good to be stopped entirely, but the Clippers have the personnel as well equipped as any team in the playoffs to make Doncic work for every point and every assist.
It also stands to reason that both teams will have counters already lined up based on last year’s playoff series. Dallas’ Rick Carlisle is too crafty and smart a coach to not look at last year’s series, factor in some differences between how L.A. played this seaons, and come in with a plans A through Z. On the other sideline, Tyronn Lue wasn’t the Clippers’ head coach last year, but he was on Doc Rivers’ staff and has been through the process of game planning for the playoffs both as a player and as a head coach in the past. Some of the counters might end up being simple — think trying to force a switch so Doncic is guarded by a big or a smaller guard — but it could decide the series.
On the flip side: Leonard averaged 31.8 points, 10.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game against Dallas last year with Maxi Kleiber primarily defending him. Leonard can be that good again and maybe even better considering he shot under 30% from three in last year’s series. If he goes off, and if George isn’t a no-show late in the series, then maybe Los Angeles has an advantage Dallas can’t overcome.
Series X-Factor
There are two big name players that could credibly be called x-factors in this series. On one hand, there’s Paul George looking to makeup for last year’s poor showing. On the other hand, there’s Kristaps Porzingis, who wasn’t healthy for most last year’s series.
But let’s look more at the Clippers’ rotation choices at two positions: point guard and center. Tyronn Lue has three options he can go to at the former — Rajon Rondo, Reggie Jackson and Patrick Beverley. Rondo was acquired specifically to be Playoff Rondo (patent pending), so it would seem likely that he will play a large chunk of the minutes. Jackson, meanwhile, played the bulk of the minutes all year, so maybe Lue feels comfortable with him. Beverley, on the other hand, just came back from injury. It’s entirely possible Lue changes up who he uses on a game-to-game basis.
At center, Serge Ibaka just came back from injury and hasn’t played big minutes since returning, but would seem to be a good matchup with Porzingis when he plays the five and spaces out further. If healthy, he’s also probably better equipped to switch onto Doncic in a pinch. But Ivica Zubac has been solid all year and has a career-high true shooting percentage just a shade below 70%. He’s probably earned real playoff minutes even if Ibaka has versatility that Zubac does not. How Lue deploys his rotation at those two positions will be important and telling, not just for this series but potentially further down the road.
One Stat To Know
Per Cleaning The Glass, the Mavericks are +3.1 points per 100 possessions with Doncic on the court and just +.6 per 100 possessions when Doncic sits. Doncic plays an overwhelming amount of the time — he was on the court for almost 70% of Dallas’ possessions this year — and will probably play even more in the playoffs.
But there’s a very thin margin here for the Mavericks. And for them to win the series, the margins probably have to get even higher. Even if Doncic gets bumped up to around 40 minutes a night, there’s eight minutes a game where Dallas has to lean on Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and/or Kristaps Porzingis to carry lineups and keep the game in play for Doncic to pull Luka Magic out of his hat. For what it’s worth, Doncic played 35.8 minutes per game in last year’s series with L.a.
Having Leonard and George to turn to is obviously a massive advantage for the Clippers. Tyronn Lue can stagger his two stars and have at least one of them on the floor for every minute of the game if he so chooses. Rick Carlisle just doesn’t have that luxury unless Porzingis plays at a level that he hasn’t before. For what it’s worth, lineups with Porzingis and without Doncic were dead even per 100 possessions this year. Only one, however, played more than 100 possessions for the entire season. Finding ways to steal some minutes with Luka on the bench will be Dallas’ only real shot at this series, which they’ve struggled to do at points during this season.