Despite a ridiculous charge at the end of the season that saw Washington win 17 of its last 23 games, the Wizards’ reward for beating Indiana in the play-in tournament and claiming the eighth seed in the East is a matchup with a pretty scary 76ers team that they simply don’t match up well against.
As we saw in both rounds of the play-in tournament, Washington star Bradley Beal is also hampered by a nagging hamstring injury. In a series that already likely would have taken a perfect series from the Wizards to end in an upset, Washington is also less healthy and coming off a loss against Boston this week that showed their struggles handling elite perimeter scorers.
The Wizards are better than their record shows, but it’s hard to imagine that they can topple the improved 76ers in the first round.
Matchup To Watch
In sizing this series up, the first place to look is the center spot. Philadelphia big man Joel Embiid finally lived up to his MVP potential this season and put together a dominant two-way season, with the sixth-best Estimated Plus-Minus in the league as well as the tenth-most win shares. The guy was a killer all year.
Guarding him is far more complicated than which opposing center stands next to him at halfcourt for the opening tip. There will be double-teams, stunts and more, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Wizards’ collection of castoff centers does not look up to the task. Alex Len has been starting, and though he’s seven feet tall, he doesn’t have the strength to match Embiid. A few years ago we may have felt optimistic about Robin Lopez, but Embiid’s development off the bounce means he can scoot right past the 33-year-old Lopez. And Daniel Gafford, who may be their best option, just doesn’t seem to have the physical ability or game-to-game consistency to handle Embiid in his second season.
Washington coach Scott Brooks may go away from Len as the starter in this series, but even that combined with strategic double-teams won’t stop Embiid. He’s seen it all.
Series X-Factor
Who else but Russell Westbrook? The triple-double king of the NBA came on late in the season (as he typically does), but doesn’t seem to have much of a place in this series. Westbrook will likely defend Ben Simmons, setting off a duel regarding who can control the pace of the game more effectively.
The Wizards were the sixth-most efficient transition offense in the NBA according to Synergy Sports, and Washington added an average of 1.8 points per 100 possessions when Westbrook was on the floor. But Philly’s transition defense was solid, and they have plenty of bodies to throw at Westbrook and Beal.
Provided Simmons can get to the rim on Westbrook and the Sixers can go under screens on Westbrook without him making them pay, the Sixers should win this matchup. Westbrook knocking down some jumpers could bring the Wizards’ offense alive, however, and help them steal a game or two and make the series more interesting.
A couple other names to watch: Davis Bertans, who could juice Washington’s offense even more and hide defensively on Danny Green or Matisse Thybulle; and Rui Hachimura, who is getting his first postseason test and will likely be tasked with stopping Tobias Harris.
Stat To Know
The battleground for this series could be the midrange. Washington took more midrange shots as a percentage of their offense than any team in the NBA this season, while the Sixers allowed the lowest percentage from midrange of any defense. While Philly tends to default to Embiid hanging out inside the arc when defending the pick-and-roll, he is agile enough to contain a ton of space and get a hand in the ball-handler’s face while also keeping with his man. That plus excellent help defenders across the roster make the Sixers a hard defense to crack.
Both Westbrook and Beal are comfortable pulling up from mid-range. In truth, it’s among the more comfortable looks for them in the halfcourt. The Sixers don’t mind giving that shot up, but they guard it well and don’t let teams beat them with it.