Take it from the Utah Jazz themselves: Something’s gotta give. It’s why star center Rudy Gobert said after a Game 6 loss to the Clippers that “if we are to take another step in the playoffs, a lot of things will have to get better.” It’s why top executive Dennis Lindsey said the Jazz “wore down physically” and the roster would have to undergo a “comprehensive review” in order to improve.
All the negativity is understandable in the thick fog of playoff disappointment, but it’s not just a matter of this particular series. Utah fell from a 3-1 lead in the first round last year, and neither Gobert nor 24-year-old All-Star Donovan Mitchell have made a conference finals in their careers. This was supposed to be the Jazz’s year, and it ended in much the same way many other recent ones have.
Getting better could involve some changes to the makeup of the team, but it would be silly to ignore the role that injuries played for Utah. The absence of Kawhi Leonard got most of the attention, but Mitchell was also nursing a sore ankle, one he sprained just after the All-Star break and aggravated in the playoffs.
If Mitchell is healthier, the Jazz may be in the conference finals right now. Amid all the conversation about change, that’s an important consideration: Utah was not far away. But to break through and truly live up to their supposed contender status, this team needs to be more malleable. Head coach Quin Snyder has proven to be creative and adaptable during his time in Salt Lake City, handing the offense from Gordon Hayward to Mitchell and building a smaller team with more shooting after years of stubbornly keeping size on the floor. But even as the Jazz continue to change, Mitchell will be the rising tide that lifts the rest of this team.
And Mitchell has just not been quite good enough. Just 23 percent of his shot attempts came at the rim in the playoffs, down from nearly a third in each of the past two postseasons, per Cleaning the Glass. Hoping that he could step up defensively against a Paul George or Reggie Jackson may have always been a long shot, but he rarely even got those matchups while he grimaced around Staples Center in Game 6. Mitchell will get better as a player, but he was also not himself this spring.
If the Jazz are honest with themselves, though, many of the deficiencies Mitchell had already displayed early in his career cropped up again in these playoffs. He is far too allergic to driving to the basket, preferring instead to settle for pull-ups when better shots are available. He has not developed enough yet as a pick-and-roll play-maker to deliver elite offense by himself on a possession-to-possession basis in the later stages of the playoffs. Mitchell did average a career-high in assist percentage this year, but a more diverse offensive game in which defenses have to respect him as a finisher and passer would go a long way. Mitchell improving in these areas would go a long way for Utah, and considering he is only 24, this kind of growth is very possible.
Optimism is harder to come by for Gobert after watching him get turned in circles by the Clippers’ small-ball lineup. The Leonard-less unit that dismantled Utah in Games 5 and 6 is out-scoring teams by 28 points per 100 possessions this postseason, largely as a result of their relentless bullying of Gobert. During that second round series, Utah had a 121.9 defensive rating with Gobert, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, on the floor. The team just did not have another tool at its disposal when Gobert got fried.
This is where change could be useful. The Jazz were criticized for using their mid-level exception last summer to bring back Derrick Favors, a backup center who did little to mix up their identity but made sense due to the team’s decision to go all-in on continuity. Favors played well during the regular season, but the criticism feels quite reasonable now, after a playoffs in which he rarely cracked 10 minutes and provided little reason for Snyder to go to him over Gobert. Lineup and stylistic flexibility has to be a priority heading into 2022 for Utah.
Part of the issue here is that by giving Gobert top dollar and investing in players like Favors for so long, the Jazz brought this structure — and the challenges that come with it — upon themselves. While the rest of the NBA identified players like Draymond Green, P.J. Tucker, or Aaron Gordon — positional chameleons who afforded their teams the chance to go “small” without actually sacrificing size or physicality — the Jazz largely stuck to their guns. Sure, they geared a bit more toward the perimeter with players like Bogdan Bogdanovic, but Gobert remains at the center of everything they do, and in matchups like last weekend’s Game 6 in L.A., it can feel as if the guy playing center for Utah is more of a dinosaur than a difference-maker.
One issue that the Jazz could not have foreseen: Starting point guard Mike Conley also missed much of the regular season and all but one game of the second round loss to Los Angeles. Through an optimist’s lens, the Jazz might look at all this bad luck and believe a fully healthy Jazz team with a re-signed Conley would be a title threat in 2022. While they will likely be on that shortlist, it’s hard to trust that Conley can stay healthy for a full season anymore. He hasn’t cracked 60 games played since arriving in Utah, and has played 80 games just twice in his NBA career.
Now 33, Conley’s free agency is the biggest question facing the team and its future salary cap situation. Conley carries a $39.3 million cap hold entering free agency this summer, and the Jazz are capped out for years to come because Mitchell’s max extension kicks in next season. Whether they keep Conley or move on, that doesn’t change. Seemingly, that would create an incentive to come together on a short-term deal that brings Conley back as Utah’s starter on a cheaper contract, perhaps something shorter that is partially guaranteed to guard against further health decline on Conley’s part. Then again, the Jazz do not seem to be all-in on bringing Conley back.
“He’s got to go vet his market,” Lindsey said this month. “We’ve got to go Draft, and as soon as it’s legal have free agent conversations. … We’ll have just a real honest conversation and see if you can make a marriage work, but couldn’t be more proud of him.”
Moving on from Conley would provide more flexibility for trades, pushing Utah further from the luxury tax. With players such as Georges Niang, Juwan Morgan, and Miye Oni waiting in the wings thanks to the Jazz’s excellent player development program, it probably makes sense to explore whether Joe Ingles fetches any interest around the NBA. At 33, Ingles is not going to be a solution to Utah’s perimeter defensive ails and as Mitchell gets better, Ingles’ play-making may not be quite so needed.
With the 30th pick and another mid-level exception to use, the Jazz have limited means to get better externally outside of trading someone like Ingles, Favors, or Jordan Clarkson. Because of his athletic limitations and the fact that his offensive game is still so rudimentary, Gobert is probably not a good bet to improve much over the remainder of his prime. A fully realized version of Mitchell can take this Jazz team further, but in order to improve, the team will need to face the sobering reality that it cannot commit entirely to the way Gobert plays and still handle the adjustments needed come playoff time.