The 2021 college football season is well underway after an amuse-bouche of sorts in Week 0 last week and a full Thursday night that saw Ohio State and UCF complete second half comebacks to pick up important early season wins. Week 1’s marathon that started on Wednesday will see games every night through Monday, and that means a full weekend of football betting is afoot.
Each week, we’ll highlight five of our favorite plays from the college football slate in our never-ending quest to hand out winners, and I will look to do my best to replicate the success of my colleague Brad Rowland on the NFL side. The college slate is much bigger each week and in the past I have had a tendency to spray the board wildly, but I’m going to try and narrow my focus to five plays each week and see if a little moderation is the key to more success.
Come get these Week 1 winners (lines come courtesy BetMGM).
Michigan State-Northwestern UNDER 46 (Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET)
This is a tone-setter for the season. There’s nothing I enjoy more than a good Under and few teams I enjoy riding with in my quest for as few points as possible as Northwestern and Michigan State. This has all the makings of a good old fashioned Big Ten rock fight on Friday night and I love it. We’ll cozy up with this nightcap and look for a lot of defense, a lot of punts, and the clock to roll as these teams run the damn ball.
Kansas State (-3.5) vs. Stanford (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
This might be the least enticing Cowboys Classic in history in terms of brand name draws, but I cannot wait for this one. I have the Under as well, because these are two teams that enjoy running the football and I expect the clock to move swiftly, but I like the Cats as a short favorite even more. I’m not typically a favorites guy, but I do find myself leaning on a few this week. Stanford has been lost in the wilderness recently as the overall talent pool has slipped a bit on the Farm. Kansas State, meanwhile, boasts one of the country’s most dynamic backs in Deuce Vaughn, and I expect them to simply produce more explosive plays in the running game to be able to pull ahead and away from the Cardinal.
Alabama-Miami (FL) UNDER 61.5 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
In recent years, the Tide have become an offensive powerhouse, peaking last season with the uber-explosive group led by Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, and Najee Harris. However, this year’s squad features a ton of turnover on the offensive side of the ball, headlined by young phenom QB Bryce Young and a new offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien now that Steve Sarkisian is off in Austin at the helm of Texas. It’s possible Alabama gets back to its explosive ways later in the season, but this team has the feel early of some of those early Nick Saban squads that will rely on a glutton of defensive talent to lead the way and ask their offense to simply not make mistakes. As the season goes on and Young and company get more comfortable, that could change, but to start, I expect them to be a defense-first squad and, against a Miami team that likewise boasts a stout defense, I think this game slides in Under the total of 61.5.
Illinois (-5.5) vs. UTSA (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
This line stinks. The Illini dusted Nebraska in their Week 0 opener and UTSA comes into Champaign as a solid, yet unspectacular C-USA squad. Naturally, this line is inside a touchdown which normally sets off alarm bells. I’m going to ignore those, however, and ride with Bret Bielema’s squad in a classic letdown spot for one significant reason: they are a really old team. No roster has more “super seniors” than Illinois, as they took full advantage of the NCAA granting everyone an added year of eligibility. Art Sitkowski looked very comfortable leading this offense as he came off the bench to replace an injured Brandon Peters, and their physicality at the point of attack running the football makes me believe they can take control of this game and cruise to a 7-10 point win.
San Diego State (-31.5) vs. New Mexico State (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Friends, let’s talk about the worst team in college football. New Mexico State isn’t just bad, they are awful. This is a team that skipped the fall season and played two games in the spring against FCS squads Tarleton State and Dixie State. They lost to Tarleton State by 26 and narrowly beat Dixie State by 7. They then opened this season in Week 0 against UTEP, a perennial bottom feeder in Conference USA, and lost 30-3 in a game that didn’t even feel that close. Now, they go play one of the most consistent programs in the country in San Diego State and are only catching 31.5 points. America, I am here to tell you, as a staunch advocate of taking the points in this situation most every time, to lay it with the Aztecs and rest easy on Saturday night. The Aggies are that bad.