It’s hard to know what to make of the Minnesota Timberwolves. There’s a franchise-level talent in Karl-Anthony Towns to build around. Anthony Edwards is heading into year two after a promising rookie year. Chris Finch now gets a full year. Maybe they end up making a swing for Ben Simmons.
So, there are reasons to be excited. But it’s unclear how many wins that gets the Timberwolves right now. And that might also complicate the team’s future.
Roster:
Malik Beasley
Anthony Edwards
Karl-Anthony Towns
Patrick Beverley
Jake Layman
Jaden McDaniels
Jordan McLaughlin
Jaylen Nowell
Josh Okogie
Taurean Prince
D’Angelo Russell
Naz Reid
Jarred Vanderbilt
Nathan Knight (Two-way)
McKinley Wright IV (Two-way)
Projected Vegas Win Total: 34.5
Biggest Addition: Taurean Prince, Patrick Beverley
Prince and Beverley were both acquired by trade and neither really moves the needle in a significant way on the court. They can both play rotation minutes, but don’t really change the trajectory of the team or figure to matter a few years from now.
Together, however, they combine to make $27.3 million in 2021-22 and are in the last year of their contracts. If new interim (and possibly long-term) president of basketball operations Sachin Gupta wants to get aggressive before the trade deadline and make a splash to acquire someone the team really wants making that amount of money, those two contracts are key to getting it done without flipping a core piece.
Biggest Loss: Ricky Rubio
Here’s the thing about Ricky Rubio: Trading him got the Wolves a serviceable forward in Prince, cash and a future second-round pick to play around with. From a purely business perspective, that trade makes sense.
But Rubio is a known leader and dependable point guard that the team will miss. Without him, there’s no real creator on the roster who excels at organizing the offense and keeping the trains running on time. (Russell is more score-first, while Beverly is a defense-first player first and foremost.)
There are ways to solve this — Chris Finch’s offense should put Towns in a moer play-making role, for one — but it’s going to be an adjustment.
Biggest Question: How much of an impact will Chris Finch make?
Finch came in February of last season, taking over for Ryan Saunders. A mid-season hire already made his transition difficult and it was made even harder by the fact that last year was a compacted season due to COVID-19. There was certainly some install done on the fly, but it wasn’t the full Chris Finch playbook. In 41 games under Finch, the Wolves were 16-25 with the league’s 17th best offense, per NBA.com/stats.
Now, with a full offseason and proper training camp, Finch gets a chance to install his full offense. He comes to the role with a reputation as a progressive, modern offensive game planner. If he’s as advertised and can maximize the pieces the team has, that could bump the team up to a top-12ish offense and put Towns in a spot to have the best season of his career. If Finch doesn’t have a massive impact, it’s hard to know what the strength of this team will be.
What Makes This Season A Success: A spot in the play-in tournament
The Wolves are not a contender, nor are they a lock to be in the playoff hunt in a still very good Western Conference. Last year, they were 10 games back of the 10th-seeded Spurs and 19 games back of the seventh-seeded Lakers. In terms of net rating, they were significantly worse than the teams ahead of them in the standings.
A leap into the seven-seed range would be massive. Even a leap into the 10th seed range would be a massive step forward. But for a franchise that has someone as good as Towns and at least some interesting supplemental pieces, there’s some pressure to play some meaningful games. Making the play-in tournament would be a step in the right direction.
What Makes This Season A Failure: Finishing near the bottom of the Western Conference
Simply put, the Timberwolves need to improve this year. Another year finishing way outside of the playoff hunt could complicate keeping Towns happy and whatever it is the team wants to accomplish.
>The good news is that, if the season does go bad, the Wolves no longer owe first-round picks in the D’Angelo Russell trade. That gives them some hope even if the year doesn’t play out as expected.