The Oklahoma City Thunder started the 2020-21 season with a 10-12 record. Even with every caveat about outperforming their statistical baseline, it was an impressive start to the Mark Daigneault era, and the Thunder were pretty feisty. Over the next 50 games, though, the Thunder posted a 12-38 record that was more fitting when considering their roster makeup and obvious priorities.
Along the way, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander experienced a breakout and the Thunder won seven more games than their point differential (-10.6 points per 100 possessions) would project. As the 2021-22 campaign nears, things aren’t that much different in Oklahoma City, but they have a deep bench of intriguing youngsters and they should be, at the very least, an entertaining watch.
Roster:
Darius Bazley
Charlie Brown
Gabriel Deck
Luguentz Dort
Derrick Favors
Josh Giddey
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Ty Jerome
Vit Krejci
Theo Maledon
Tre Mann
Mike Muscala
Aleksej Pokusevski
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Isaiah Roby
Paul Watson
Aaron Wiggins
Kenrich Williams
Projected Vegas Win Total: 23.5 wins
Biggest Addition: Josh Giddey
Derrick Favors is probably the best present-day player added by the Thunder in an offseason that saw considerable churn in Oklahoma City. However, Favors isn’t likely to be a part of the long-term future, and the Thunder invested a lottery pick in Giddey. It might not be great as a rookie for the teenager with shooting problems, but OKC’s claim to fame is its chest of draft picks and Giddey presumably slots behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the team’s asset rankings.
Biggest Loss: Al Horford/Kemba Walker
Horford was traded for Walker, who was then flipped to New York. Oklahoma City does have Favors to act as a veteran leader of sorts, but the Thunder aren’t exactly overflowing with established talent at the moment. That isn’t the biggest deal for their short-term goals, but they didn’t lose much else.
Biggest Question: What does OKC have to flank Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
Even a pessimist would admit that Gilgeous-Alexander is a budding standout, and he was excellent last season at a young age. The questions begin after him, where the Thunder could really use a breakout from another youthful player or two. Perhaps it is Giddey. Perhaps it is Dort or Pokusevski. But they need something to go along with Gilgeous-Alexander and future picks.
What Makes This Season A Success
This is a two-pronged answer, much as it would be for many rebuilding teams. Oklahoma City should be looking for development of young pieces, particularly with Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Pokusevski, Giddey, Bazley, Maledon, Robinson-Earl, and Mann. That is certainly a priority, and real growth from those young pieces would move the needle. From there, the Thunder probably need another high-lottery pick. They got unlucky last year to land at No. 6 overall, and losing a bunch of games is likely the best outcome.
What Makes This Season A Failure
At present, Gilgeous-Alexander is the only young piece that is remotely proven. If it stays that way a year from now, that would be suboptimal for the Thunder in the simplest terms. On top of that focus, Oklahoma City likely needs to avoid winning too many games and outperforming their point differential in a way that would negatively influence their position at the top of the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery.