On occasion, things break your way in the world of sports handicapping, and Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season was an example in this space. The result was a 5-0 performance and, for the most part, each win seemed to be the right side for good measure. Will we rest on our laurels? Absolutely not. In fact, Week 5 brings its own challenges, and we’ll hand out five selections below.
In the meantime, let’s take a glance at the progress through four weeks and twenty picks.
- Last Week: 5-0
- 2021 Season: 14-6
Come get these winners.
Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets UNDER 45.5 points
What a hideous matchup for the good folks of London to witness. The Falcons have not been much fun to watch this season and, with the exception of last week’s victory over the Titans, the Jets haven’t been anything special either. Honestly, I have a slight lean to Atlanta as less than a field goal favorite, but the total is also quite appetizing. Seven of the last ten London games have gone under the total and these are two offenses I don’t trust. Throw in body clock concerns and the fact that Atlanta is without its top two receivers, and we will be rooting for early morning punts and field goals.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) over Green Bay Packers
This is a simple sharp/public split. The world is on Green Bay. The sharp side is Cincinnati. It is reflected in the ticket count and money on both sides. Cincinnati may be without Joe Mixon but, honestly, that could be a positive thing if it nudges them to throw more often against the Packers. Home underdogs please.
Cleveland Browns (+2) over Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers got us home last week, but we’re fading this time around. This is a “buy low” spot on Cleveland, as the bandwagon seems to be emptying on the Browns. I buy Cleveland’s defensive front. I buy their running game here. Bottom line? I think the Browns are the (slightly) better team and they’re getting two points in a road venue that isn’t exactly intimidating for the opposition.
San Francisco 49ers (+5) over Arizona Cardinals
The undefeated Cardinals have been rolling, but this has been a spot I’ve circled all week. Arizona is 2-6 as a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury and this number should be three or so in my mind. I do not trust the Cards just yet. Take the candy.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills
I honestly can’t tell if this is square or not. Usually, the Chiefs are a very public team, but they’ve been shakier than expected and the Bills won by about a million points last week. That leads us to a very rare spot in which Patrick Mahomes and company are home favorites by less than a field goal. There is certainly a concern that the Chiefs won’t be able to get stops, but Buffalo’s offense (and Josh Allen) hasn’t been quite as good as you may think. Lay the small number.