Highs and lows are part of sports handicapping, and that has been evident the last two weeks in this space. After a sparkling, undefeated Week 4 performance, Week 5 was a house of horrors for our NFL card. The Sunday night finale was simply a pick that had no chance, as the Kansas City Chiefs were bludgeoned as a small home favorite, but the first four games… were unfortunate.
For a quick snapshot, the Falcons-Jets game was a horror drawn up from the depths when it came to an Under bet. The Bengals somehow pushed (at +3) despite myriad opportunities. The Browns (+2) became the first team in the history of the NFL to score more than 40 points with more than 500 yards and no turnovers… in a loss. And, finally, the 49ers out-gained the Cardinals and gave away multiple opportunities to lose by seven as a five-point underdog.
Things happen, of course, but part of the fun is pressing through. Before we hand out five selections for Week 6, let’s check in on the season-long work and a hideous Week 5 showing.
- Last Week: 0-4-1
- 2021 Season: 14-10-1
Come get these winners.
Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 47 points
The London under bit us last week, but I’m not deterred. Miami’s offense has been horrendous, landing 31st in both points and points per drive. Jacksonville hasn’t exactly been lighting it up either, and this number feels a touch high. Pray for hideousness.
Cleveland Browns (-3.5) over Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is undefeated and catching more than a field goal against a Browns team that lost a high-profile game a week ago. Admittedly, it would’ve been preferable to get Cleveland earlier in the week at a better number, but I don’t think the Cardinals can stop Cleveland. It’s the rare situation where the favorite isn’t the public side.
New England Patriots (+3.5) over Dallas Cowboys
This is really gross, particularly if you’ve been watching New England’s offense lately. We might be jumping in front of the train, but the Patriots’ hiccup last week helps us get a good number here.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) over Denver Broncos
It’s been a long, ugly week for the Raiders. I get that. It’s still wild to see them catching more than a field goal against Denver in this spot. I’ll bet on a bit of a bounce after the Gruden exodus, and Las Vegas mailing it in last week perhaps throws the market off the scent.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle was favored on the look-ahead line. Then, the Steelers looked spry last week and the Seahawks lost Russell Wilson. That certainly explains the massive shift in this point spread, but Pittsburgh laying more than a field goal here feels silly. It’s possible that Geno Smith lets us down, but we’ll take the chance.