Thanksgiving is a time for family and fellowship, but it is also a time to consume copious amounts of football. That happened in 2021 and, in this space, things went very well in the NFL to the tune of a 5-0 performance. That isn’t sustainable by any means, but it certainly helps the bottom line, and Week 13 looms with another interesting card on the docket.
Before we roll into a five-pack of selections, let’s glance at how things have gone this season.
- Last Week: 5-0
- 2021 Season: 35-24-1
Come get these winners.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals
We enjoy the Chargers on the road, as a general rule. This line is also inflated after two blowout wins for the Bengals, and Justin Herbert is coming off a brutal game by his standards. Los Angeles may not win outright, but getting the field goal pushes this over the top.
New York Giants (+4) over Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are on a four-game winning streak. They are certainly playing better, but three of those victories came against the Texans, Jets and Panthers. There is a lot of attention paid to Miami’s uptick and, while the Giants are not a ton of fun to side with, New York can keep this tight with their defense. The line is also higher than it should be because of the worries about Daniel Jones and his neck. To put it bluntly, the line shouldn’t move more than a point between Jones and Mike Glennon.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) over Baltimore Ravens
This is gross. I’m fairly low on the Steelers, fading them with success last week, but this is their season. Pittsburgh’s defense is getting healthier, and the Steelers know the Ravens well. Mike Tomlin is also stellar as an underdog and this line shouldn’t be more than three.
Denver Broncos (+10) over Kansas City Chiefs
We don’t lean too heavily on trends in this column, but there are a few in play here. First, the Chiefs are 12-18 against the spread in the last 30 games, including playoffs, and that includes a 5-11 mark in home games. Second, Teddy Bridgewater’s ATS record as an underdog is the stuff of legend in NFL circles. Third, this is a lot of points for a Broncos defense that remains stout. Kansas City is likely going to win the game, but the full ten points should be enough.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) over New England Patriots
The Patriots are playing great. There is no doubt about that. They’ve won six in a row and the last several victories came in blowout fashion. That explains the number, at least to some degree, but I still believe Buffalo is the better team. Yes, Bills All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White is injured, and that hurts Buffalo’s defense, but this isn’t the spot in which that should bite the Bills. New England’s defense is real, but this is a number that is too appealing to pass on right now.