The Super Bowl LVI matchup is set between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams, who will be the second team in NFL history (and second team in a row) to get to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium in two weeks.
It is far from the matchup most predicted when the NFL Playoffs began, as both the Rams and Bengals entered the postseason as the 4-seed in their respective conference. Los Angeles’ path to the Super Bowl took them through a pair of divisional rivals, starting with the Cardinals and ending with the 49ers, but the highlight of their playoff run thus far was a thriller in Tampa Bay where they unseated the defending champs on a last-second field goal. For Cincinnati, they’ve gotten through three nail-biters against the Raiders, Titans, and most impressively the Chiefs, coming back from 18 down to match the 2006 Indianapolis Colts for the biggest conference championship game comeback in NFL history.
For the next two weeks, these two teams will be trying to come up with the best game plan of the year that highlights their strengths and takes advantage of the other’s weaknesses in order to best position themselves to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Here, we’re going to look at the statistical matchup for these two offenses and defenses, as well as their special teams units to see where the advantages lie for each and where we can expect them to focus their attacks on both sides of the ball come Super Bowl Sunday.
Rams offense vs. Bengals defense
Below you can find each team’s offensive and defensive ranks in some key categories, but here we’ll highlight the biggest advantages for L.A.’s offense and Cincinnati’s defense. The Rams lean heavily on the right arm of Matthew Stafford, for better and worse, and his ability to create big plays in the passing game is going to be critical for L.A. They are third in the NFL in yards per attempt through the air, third in 20+ yard pass plays, and first in 40+ yard pass plays, and you can expect them to look to pop the top off of a Cincinnati defense that has been susceptible to that (they allowed the third most 20+ yard pass plays on defense in the NFL this regular season).
For the Bengals, it’ll be bucking that trend as they did in the second half against the Chiefs in the AFC title game (after a dreadful first half). If they can keep a lid on Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. — and they typically play coverage with the seventh-lowest blitz percentage in the NFL — they are one of the best (7th) in the NFL at keeping teams off of the scoreboard, as just 33.9 percent of opposing drives result in points. The other area they’ll look to exploit is Stafford’s propensity to throw interceptions, as the Rams tossed 18 picks this year, tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. It’s not a surprise given how much they throw the ball, but Cincinnati’s ability to get pressure with their front four and play coverage behind is going to give them a chance at stealing a possession.
Bengals offense vs. Rams defense
One of the only offenses that can match the Rams aerial onslaught is Cincinnati, which boasts the league’s best passing yards per attempt at 8.7 and is right behind the Rams in 20+ yard plays at 63. Jalen Ramsey figures to be tailing Ja’Marr Chase for most of the day, which will be a fascinating matchup to watch, but despite the presence of the All-Pro DB, L.A. gave up 53 pass plays of 20+ yards this season and Joe Burrow will look to apply some pressure to that secondary.
The most talked about part of this game, almost assuredly, will be the apparent mismatch of the Rams defensive line against the Bengals offensive line. Cincy’s woes up front are well documented, rearing their head in the game in Tennessee when Burrow was sacked nine times in the win. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and the Rams front will be expected to wreak havoc on the Bengals, who have been particularly soft in the middle of the line. If L.A. can dominate up front as they’re expected, it will make it much more difficult for Burrow to stand in and find those chunk plays down the field. On the flip side, Burrow’s ability to break the pocket, break a tackle, and pick up yards on the ground, as he did a few times in key moments against the Chiefs may be the difference in Cincinnati extending drives and giving themselves more opportunities for those big plays they’ll need.
Rams Special Teams vs. Bengals Special Teams
This figures to be one of the cleanest Super Bowls from a special teams perspective, as both of these units are very good. Evan McPherson, the Bengals rookie kicker, has become a star in these playoffs and has a leg that, in the climate controlled conditions at SoFi Stadium, could put the Bengals in field goal range whenever they cross the Rams 45. Matt Gay is an All-Pro this year, making over 94 percent of his kicks and missing just one XP, but has a couple misses in the last two weeks, including the stunning miss short on a 47 yarder in Tampa. He’s good, but the kicking advantage right now feels like it leans Cincy just a touch.
These are two good punters too, but Johnny Hekker exists on a different plane of existence this season. He doesn’t get a ton of action (51 punts are tied for the third fewest in the league this year), but he allows almost no chances to break a return as opponents have just nine returns for 60 yards all season. Kevin Huber’s no slouch, with 65 punts and just 28 returns for 235 yards, but the punting advantage is certainly in the Rams favor.
Rams Offensive Ranks:
Passing Yards/Att: 8.1 (3rd in the NFL)
Rushing Yards/Att: 4.0 (T23)
Yards Per Play: 6.0 (T3)
Scoring Percentage (drives that end in points): 45.9% (3)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 60.0% (T14)
Third Down Percentage: 43.9% (7)
Passing Plays 20+ Yards: 65 (3)
Passing Plays 40+ Yards: 18 (1)
Rushing Plays 20+ Yards: 3 (31)
Sacks Allowed: 31 (T6)
Interceptions: 18 (T27)
Fumbles Lost: 5 (T3)
Turnover Percentage: 12.2% (16)
Team Penalties: 76 (T3)
Team Penalty Yards: 637 (2)
Rams Defensive Ranks:
Passing Yards/Att: 7.2 (T21st in the NFL)
Rushing Yards/Att: 4.0 (T5)
Yards Per Play: 5.2 (T7)
Scoring Percentage (drives that end in points): 35.9% (13)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 51.8% (8)
Third Down Percentage: 41.3% (21)
Passing Plays Allowed 20+ Yards: 53 (T18)
Passing Plays Allowed 40+ Yards: 10 (T18)
Rushing Plays Allowed 20+ Yards: 4 (2)
Sacks: 50 (3)
Interceptions: 19 (T3)
Fumbles Recovered: 6 (T26)
Turnover Percentage: 13.3% (9)
Bengals Offensive Ranks:
Passing Yards/Att: 8.7 (1st in the NFL)
Rushing Yards/Att: 4.0 (T23)
Yards Per Play: 5.9 (T5)
Scoring Percentage (drives that end in points): 42.6% (12)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 59.6% (16)
Third Down Percentage: 39.6% (16)
Passing Plays 20+ Yards: 63 (T4)
Passing Plays 40+ Yards: 16 (2)
Rushing Plays 20+ Yards: 8 (T22)
Sacks Allowed: 55 (29)
Interceptions: 14 (T14)
Fumbles Lost: 7 (T20)
Turnover Percentage: 10.0% (12)
Team Penalties: 72 (2)
Team Penalty Yards: 620 (1)
Bengals Defensive Ranks:
Passing Yards/Att: 7.2 (T21st in the NFL)
Rushing Yards/Att: 4.3 (T13)
Yards Per Play: 5.5 (T19)
Scoring Percentage (drives that end in points): 33.9% (7)
Red Zone TD Percentage: 60.4% (19)
Third Down Percentage: 41.6% (22)
Passing Plays Allowed 20+ Yards: 65 (29)
Passing Plays Allowed 40+ Yards: 8 (T14)
Rushing Plays Allowed 20+ Yards: 8 (T6)
Sacks: 42 (T11)
Interceptions: 13 (T15)
Fumbles Recovered: 8 (T11)
Turnover Percentage: 11.1% (17)