During the bizarrely scheduled 2020-21 NBA season, the All-Star break actually fell in the middle of the shortened campaign. That isn’t unique in league history but, oftentimes, All-Star weekend and the general hiatus lands a bit later in the basketball calendar, and that applies to the 2021-22 season. In fact, each NBA team has appeared in at least 57 games, with some pushing above the 60-game mark in the first half of the campaign.
What does that mean? Well, the second half of the calendar isn’t quite as long as one might think. That brings urgency to postseason chases in both conferences, with playoff-caliber teams facing real urgency. At the top of the Eastern Conference, eight teams are within seven games of the No. 1 spot, and the top seven teams are separated by only five total games. That creates uncertainty when attempting to forecast playoff matchups, and the difference between the No. 1 seed and landing in the play-in tournament isn’t nearly as substantial as it seems.
Out West, the Phoenix Suns lead the pack by 6.5 games which, by proxy, is larger than the gap between the No. 1 and No. 7 teams in the East. After that, however, the races become much closer, both for a top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round and at the play-in level. In fact, several teams (Pelicans, Kings, etc.) are openly pushing to reach the play-in, and there are legitimate stakes at the bottom of the playoff push.
With 25 games or fewer remaining for every NBA team, the margins are slim this time of year, and the league will resume regular operations with games on Thursday. To that end, our DIME power rankings are back for another run to glance at the upcoming second half.
1. Phoenix Suns (48-10, Last week — 1st)
The Suns are very clearly in the driver’s seat at the All-Star break, but challenging times could be on the horizon. Chris Paul is out for 6-to-8 weeks and, while Phoenix is set up to weather that in the standings, no team wants to be derailed by that kind of injury. Provided Paul can return at full strength for the playoffs, the Suns will be just fine, but it isn’t a total given that this well-oiled machine will churn the same way without one of its engines.
2. Golden State Warriors (42-17, Last week — 2nd)
The Warriors have the second-best profile. The Warriors are also operating below the baseline they established early in the season. Both can be true. Steph Curry’s eruption in the All-Star Game might be an indication of what’s to come, but all eyes are on Draymond Green and when he can return to anchor the defense and unlock the offense with his playmaking.
3. Memphis Grizzlies (41-19, Last week — 3rd)
Memphis is generally viewed as a team that is ahead of schedule, but the Grizzlies are here now. Memphis is a top-five team in the league in record and net rating, and and Ja Morant is a bonafide superstar. The Grizzlies didn’t make an all-in move before the trade deadline, leaving this roster to its own devices, but anything short of a top-three seed would feel like a disappointment after this start.
4. Miami Heat (38-21, Last week — 5th)
The Heat sit tied atop the East at the break, and that perch comes after seven wins in eight games to close the first half. Miami’s expectations are sky-high after the move to add Kyle Lowry in the offseason, but skeptics about Miami’s depth (including yours truly) have proven wrong. Now, the question is just how high the ceiling is for the Heat as things grind toward the finish.
5. Boston Celtics (34-26, Last week — 4th)
If you glance at the standings, it will seem ludicrous to have the Celtics as a top-five team. A deeper look reveals that isn’t the case. For one, Boston has the best net rating (+5.4) in the NBA. For another, the Celtics lead the entire NBA in both net rating and defensive rating since the calendar flipped to 2022. Lastly, the Celtics made a swift move to add Derrick White at the deadline, and Boston can pair two shot-creating wings (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown) with an elite defense. That’s a scary formula.
6. Chicago Bulls (38-21, Last week — 7th)
Quietly, Chicago’s defense has cratered in 2022, with the Bulls giving up more than 1.15 points per possession. Fortunately, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and a potent offense has covered up for it to solid overall results, but can Chicago right the ship on defense? It would help to have Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso, but there are systematic questions on defense for a team that prominently features DeRozan, LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic together. Regardless, the Bulls are in a tie with the Heat for the top spot, and they’ve greatly exceeded expectations.
7. Philadelphia 76ers (35-23, Last week — 8th)
The Sixers overhauled things at the deadline and, coming out of the break, there should be a chance to peek at what’s to come. James Harden changes things on both ends of the floor, with questions about how it will work alongside Joel Embiid. Then again, the Sixers effectively swapped Seth Curry and Andre Drummond for Harden and Embiid might be having the best season in the NBA, so it’s not hard to see those questions answered in such a way that Philly is dangerous come playoff time.
8. Milwaukee Bucks (36-24, Last week — 9th)
As much as the Bucks have earned this No. 8 ranking, they might be the most trustworthy team in the East. Per Cleaning The Glass, Milwaukee’s trio of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday have outscored opponents by nearly 14 points per 100 possessions when playing together. That dominance speaks for itself and, of course, the Bucks are still the champs. The questions linger about health, though, and that particularly pertains to the still-absent Brook Lopez.
9. Utah Jazz (36-22, Last week — 6th)
Utah is 30-14 when Rudy Gobert plays this season. That is a lot closer to preseason expectations for the Jazz, with Utah visibly cratering while Gobert was sidelined. Metrically, the Jazz have the second-best net rating (+6.9) in the NBA behind Phoenix, and that also might be closer to what would be expected. Does that mean Utah is flawless? Definitely not, as a porous defense and shaky assist percentage are fairly frightening. The Jazz shouldn’t be dismissed, though, and they know as much as any team that the playoffs are what matters.
10. Denver Nuggets (33-25, Last week — 11th)
The Nuggets would be terrifying if they had Jamal Murray. The Nuggets would be terrifying if they had a healthy version of Michael Porter Jr. available. Heck, the Nuggets are terrifying when they have Nikola Jokic on the floor, no matter who is playing with him. Denver is more than 20 (!) points per 100 possessions better with the reigning MVP on the court, and the Nuggets are pretty good because he’s on the team. No one wants to play Denver in the playoffs if they get healthy.
11. Dallas Mavericks (35-24, Last week — 12th)
It’s an arbitrary endpoint, but the Mavericks are 20-7 in the last 27 games with a net rating of +8.3. The offense has been very good, but the defense has been elite, and Dallas closed with six wins in seven games before the break. The Mavericks have the inside track on a top-six seed and, with Luka Doncic in the mix, Dallas is a threat to any opponent.
12. Toronto Raptors (32-25, Last week — 13th)
The Raptors are out of the top six in the East right now, but only by a half-game. Toronto is playing at a high level, as evidenced by an 18-8 record in the last 26 games, but the question is whether they can keep up this pace. The Raptors have three of the top four players (and five of the top 13) in the NBA in minutes per game, and depth isn’t exactly a strength. If they can avoid disaster, this is a difficult team to prepare for and a team that is well-coached and prepared.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers (35-23, Last week — 10th)
Cleveland entered the break on a sour note with back-to-back losses, but that shouldn’t scare anyone too much. Those were losses to the Sixers and Hawks and, while Atlanta isn’t fantastic this season, Cleveland ran into an offensive buzzsaw in that game. The Cavs are still tied with the Bucks and Sixers in the East standings, and this is a team with a real chance at a top-four seed. It’s a remarkable story.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves (31-28, Last week — 15th)
Minnesota should really be a bigger story on a national scale. The Wolves are second only to the Cavs in improvement from last season, and Minnesota is a solid No. 7 in the West with a chance for more. Top to bottom, Minnesota probably has more talent than Denver, the team the Wolves are chasing, but they will need to find a consistently impressive level to make the necessary run to avoid the play-in.
15. Atlanta Hawks (28-30, Last week — 17th)
Since MLK Day, the Hawks are 11-5 with a +5.4 net rating. Does that mean Atlanta is turning the corner? We’ll see, but the Hawks can at least bank on the fact that they just did this a year ago. As noted above, however, the runway is a lot shorter this time around, and the Hawks are looking up at eight quality teams in the East standings before mentioning that they are also tied with the scuffling Hornets. If nothing else, Atlanta can take solace in a legitimately elite offense and the notion that even a below-average defense will make a huge difference in comparison to a dreadful one.
16. Brooklyn Nets (31-28, Last week — 16th)
The Nets are 24-12 when Kevin Durant plays. The Nets are 7-16 when Kevin Durant doesn’t play. Beyond the clear reality that Durant is elite, it is also a reminder that Brooklyn has very little to bank on when Durant isn’t around. Kyrie Irving is only eligible to play in a handful of games the rest of the season, and we’ll see what Ben Simmons looks like. Other than that, it is a waiting game until Durant can return.
17. L.A. Clippers (30-31, Last week — 14th)
Paul George has appeared in 26 games. Kawhi Leonard has appeared in zero. Somehow, the Clippers are still a .500 team on paper, and Ty Lue is doing yeoman’s work. Along with Denver above, the Clippers would be scary if pieces returned, but they are frisky as it is.
18. Portland Trail Blazers (25-34, Last week — 21st)
Portland closed the first half on a four-game winning streak, and that is notable on many levels. The Blazers have a two-game lead for the No. 10 seed, even as they clearly aren’t prioritizing the present. There is no reason Portland couldn’t keep up this pace, albeit slightly reduced, by leaning on Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, and Jusuf Nurkic, and the urgency to lose games for lottery purposes isn’t as prominent with a pick from New Orleans coming.
19. Los Angeles Lakers (27-31, Last week — 22nd)
All-Star weekend was dominated, at least in some ways, by LeBron discourse. Most of it was focused on what the Lakers didn’t do, but Los Angeles still has one-third of a season to make a run. They are still at least tangentially dangerous as long as LeBron is healthy, but Anthony Davis being out for a while stings.
20. San Antonio Spurs (23-36, Last week — 19th)
San Antonio clearly isn’t pushing for the play-in like the Pelicans and Kings are, and that was evident in deals that sent Derrick White and Thaddeus Young away at the deadline. In a crazy twist, though, the Spurs have a (very slightly) positive net rating for the season and, if that holds along with an uninspiring record, San Antonio would have the worst winning percentage in history. In short, things haven’t gone well in close games.
21. Charlotte Hornets (29-31, Last week — 18th)
For a long while, Charlotte was in the top five in offensive rating. Now that they aren’t, the Hornets are scuffling with nine losses in 10 games and a 3-10 mark without Gordon Hayward in the lineup. Candidly, it is hard to see Charlotte’s defense improving much, but they badly need to recapture the offensive fervor that carried them for most of the first half.
22. New Orleans Pelicans (23-36, Last week — 20th)
CJ McCollum has led the Pelicans in scoring in four straight games. That’s probably a good sign, even as New Orleans went 1-3. The Pelicans are fighting hard for the play-in, but New Orleans has a two-game deficit to make up. It would probably help if they had Zion Williamson, but that’s another story.
23. Washington Wizards (27-31, Last week — 24th)
It feels unbelievable that the Wizards are within one game of the play-in. With Bradley Beal out of the lineup, Washington isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire, but they are hanging on in comparison to Charlotte and Atlanta. Objectively, this isn’t a roster that is energizing, but getting a chance to peek at Kristaps Porzingis in a new uniform down the stretch could be interesting.
24. New York Knicks (25-34, Last week — 26th)
The Knicks have one victory in the month of February, and it came on the road over the Warriors. That embodies this bizarre season for New York, with the Knicks barely holding on to the fringes of the play-in race. Last season felt like an aberration. This season might be one, too. Regardless, it’s been ugly and it may not change in the next 23 games.
25. Sacramento Kings (22-38, Last week — 23rd)
The Kings are 2-2 since acquiring Domantas Sabonis, even if the last two games before the break went the wrong way. Sacramento is clearly pushing for the play-in but, in the big picture, what matters is the partnership between Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, along with the development of Davion Mitchell. Can the Kings crash the play-in party? We’ll see, but they are pretty close to the mix for a team ranked No. 25 in the league.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (18-40, Last week — 25th)
Oklahoma City is legitimately good on defense and legitimately brutal on offense. Being a top-10 team on one side of the floor is actually encouraging for a rebuilding club, but the Thunder will soon have to make decisions on young guys, if only because they have so many picks coming. Evaluation time is precious as a result, and the rest of the year is viewed through that lens.
27. Indiana Pacers (20-40, Last week — 28th)
If we’re being honest, the Pacers probably need to keep losing. Indiana famously hasn’t had a top-nine pick in three decades, and the Pacers could use an infusion of high-end young talent. On the other hand, any basketball observer would have to be intrigued by the potential to see Tyrese Haliburton, Malcolm Brogdon, and Myles Turner together, just to see how it looks. Throw in rookie Chris Duarte, and there is still an interesting foundation in place amid the chaos and losses.
28. Detroit Pistons (13-45, Last week — 30th)
Most of this week’s slate is focused on the future, but we have to acknowledge Detroit’s entertaining win over Boston to close the first half. Cade Cunningham is showing all the signs of the player he was billed to be, Jerami Grant is still on board as a strong veteran, and the Pistons do have pieces. The rest of the campaign should be focused on making things easy for Cunningham to develop and accumulating ping-pong balls.
29. Orlando Magic (13-47, Last week — 27th)
Per NBA.com, no team has given more of its minutes (50 percent in total) to rookies and sophomores than the Magic. That makes complete sense for a rebuilding team, and the results are mixed as a result. Orlando does have functional lineups to deploy when healthy, and the rookie season of Franz Wagner has been an unmitigated success. Now, it’s about seeing what this group can do and remembering the pending returns of Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz.
30. Houston Rockets (15-43, Last week — 29th)
The Rockets have the NBA’s longest active losing streak and the only statistical profile in the league that features bottom-five units on offense and defense. Does that actually matter for right now? Probably not. Houston does have real young talent, headlined by noted dunk contest participant Jalen Green, and they have vital development time coming. That might not jive with the presence of Eric Gordon and Dennis Schroder on this roster, but there should still be plenty of minutes to go around, and the win-loss results don’t matter. It’s all about next year and the year after that.