With three teams competing for playoff positioning and two teams potentially jockeying for ping-pong balls, the Southwest Division projects to be quite interesting in 2022-23. At the top, the Dallas Mavericks aim to recreate the magic of a Western Conference Finals run, with the Memphis Grizzlies looking to repeat as division champions and the New Orleans Pelicans seeking to rekindle an encouraging second-half performance a season ago.
Each of the division’s five teams has questions to answer and, in this space, we’ll shed light on one particular question that could be pivotal for the present and future.
Dallas Mavericks: What’s the plan without Jalen Brunson?
Much has been made of Jalen Brunson’s exit from Dallas, including a tampering investigation centering on his transition to New York. What’s done is done, though, and the Mavericks must proceed without the team’s No. 2 offensive option from last season. On paper, the Mavericks can simply lean even further into the Luka Doncic experience, which isn’t a bad option for a potential MVP candidate. Still, Doncic can’t play every game and every minute, and the Mavericks are short on shot creation.
Dallas does have Spencer Dinwiddie, who should have the first crack at keeping the offense afloat without Doncic on the floor or as a second-side creator. Still, Dinwiddie has battled injury issues and inconsistency in recent seasons and, simply put, the Mavericks have virtually nothing else in the way of shot creators on the roster. Dallas does have quality play finishers, both up front with Christian Wood and JaVale McGee, and on the perimeter with Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, and Reggie Bullock. Somebody has to set those guys up, however, and the first time Doncic or Dinwiddie is unable to play could be revealing.
Houston Rockets: What do Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. look like?
The Rockets don’t project as a playoff threat, especially when considering the team’s 20-win performance a year ago. At the same time, Houston does have a great deal of talent, and everything is future-facing around this organization. Depth of talent is a potential strength, including pieces like Tari Eason, KJ Martin, TyTy Washington, and Alperen Sengun. With that said, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. are the team’s headline-grabbing players, and this is a big year of evaluation for both.
Green enjoyed a solid rookie season, averaging 17.3 points per game with approximately league-average true shooting at the age of 19. As most rookies can attest, Green hit some roadblocks, but he also averaged 22.1 points and shot 38.7 percent from three-point range after the All-Star break. His ceiling is quite high on the offensive end, and it will be interesting to see if a leap is coming. Smith has a bit less pressure in year one, simply because rookies often struggle and he slipped to No. 3 in the Draft, but the pairing with Green is the basis of Houston’s current plan for the future. Smith isn’t the type of prospect that is likely to dominate the ball or put up gaudy numbers early, but if he shows signs, the Rockets will be in good shape.
Memphis Grizzlies: Can Ziaire Williams take the next step?
One of the uncertainties with the Grizzlies is how Memphis will replace the contributions of De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson. Neither is a high-profile piece, but Memphis replaced veterans with rookies, and that is sometimes a jarring realization for a competitive team. Mixing the two together is Ziaire Williams, who returns for year two with real confidence.
Williams was drafted as a long-term project after struggles at Stanford, and he struggled at times as a rookie. However, Williams eventually made 31 starts in the regular season and played acceptable rotation minutes as a 19-year-old in a playoff environment. His role was small in that context, but Williams has a lot of talent and there is room for him to grow into a larger role. Memphis has enjoyed big-time prosperity with draft picks recently, and he might be the next success story in the line.
New Orleans Pelicans: How does the late-season renaissance pair with Zion Williamson’s return?
The Pelicans went 36-46 last season. On paper, that isn’t anything to be terribly excited about. However, New Orleans posted a 33-30 mark in the final 63 games, made it out of the Play-In, and took the Phoenix Suns to the brink in the first round. Some of that coincided with the addition of CJ McCollum as a steady veteran with shot creation equity, but the Pelicans had already begun to coalesce around Brandon Ingram, and New Orleans found an absolute gem in Herb Jones.
As the 2022-23 season approaches, the Pelicans now have a fantastic “problem,” and it comes with how to reintegrate Zion Williamson, who missed the entire 2021-22 season. He announced his presence with authority in 2020-21, averaging 27 points per game and shooting more than 60 percent from the field. Williamson is a generational talent, but he also shifts some roles around for New Orleans, and it will be interesting to see how Willie Green and the staff are able to shuffle things around his skill set after navigating the world without him a year ago.
San Antonio Spurs: Who creates shots offensively?
Dejounte Murray enjoyed a full-fledged breakout last season, averaging 21.1 points, 9.2 assists, and 8.3 rebounds per game on the way to an All-Star appearance. That emergence earned Murray a lot of recognition and also a ticket out of town to Atlanta, with the Spurs pivoting into a full-blown rebuild effort. That is likely the right move from a future standpoint, as Murray does not profile as the No. 1 on a great team, but San Antonio is left with a mismatched roster that presents some challenges.
San Antonio does have intriguing young talent, especially with Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson. The Spurs do not have a player on the current roster that profiles as a No. 1 (or even a No. 2) scoring option, though, and Tre Jones is the incumbent offensive engine at the point guard spot. On the right night, the Spurs might be quite frisky, particularly with Gregg Popovich at the helm and a bunch of quality supporting players on the floor. It is still challenging to see how San Antonio is going to create high-quality offensive looks on a regular basis, and part of that comes from the lack of individual shot creation on paper.