Week 8 of the NFL season features only two teams on bye weeks, meaning there are 15 games to navigate from a handicapping slate. From Thursday night through Monday night, the NFL takes center stage, and the schedule even features a Sunday morning tilt in London. In this space, challenges have emerged when trying to break it all down on a weekly basis, including a 2-3 showing in Week 7 that left an empty feeling. Alas, there are five more selections coming and, before we get to the picks, let’s take a big-picture look at the 2022 progress.
- Week 7: 2-3
- 2022 Season: 16-19
Come get these winners.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) over Baltimore Ravens
It would’ve been better to get on this early in the week with Tampa Bay listed an underdog, but there is still value in this number. Tampa Bay has failed to cover in five straight games, losing four games outright. That downturn was headlined by a hideous performance in a loss to Carolina last week. In short, we’re buying low. Baltimore is a team that I value at a pretty high level, but Mark Andrews is banged up, JK Dobbins is out, and the Ravens are No. 29 in the NFL in EPA per play on defense. Hold your nose.
TEASER: Denver Broncos (+8.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars AND Houston Texans (+8.5) over Tennessee Titans
Wong teasers are actually getting rocked this season, both overall and in this space. That is likely attributed to small-sample variance, and this is one I like a lot. Denver has Russell Wilson back for Sunday in London, and the best unit on either side of the ball in that game is the Broncos defense. As for Houston, the Texans are not very good. With that said, they are bumped through key numbers to 8.5 at home in this game against what I believe to be an overvalued Titans team.
Detroit Lions (+3.5) over Miami Dolphins
Thinking about Detroit’s passing defense against Miami’s weapons is admittedly scary. I will simply note that this number should be lower, and Detroit projects to get some help with the potential (or likely) availability of Amon-Ra St. Brown and De’Andre Swift. The Lions are plucky. We’ll take the points.
New England Patriots (-2) over New York Jets
I’ve actually been quite low on the Patriots this season, but this number should be higher. New England was brutal against Chicago a week ago, accounting for the change in the market, but the Patriots are well-equipped here. Bill Belichick has a history of bouncing back well after embarrassing results, and the Jets aren’t the same team without Breece Hall. Lay the small number, even if I hate road favorites.
Green Bay Packers (+7) over Buffalo Bills in the first half
I like the full-game number here as well, but prefer the first half. Green Bay’s offense is a nightmare right now, and Buffalo is in a juicy position after a bye and with the MVP favorite on the field at home under the lights. That’s a bit terrifying, but a full touchdown in the first half is a bit much. Buffalo does have a history of flattening overmatched teams, but most of that comes in the second half traditionally. Let’s sneak into the break in a one-score game.