It wasn’t always easy, but Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season was profitable in this space. Granted, it was only a 3-2 week that could’ve been much more, but the Dolphins went scoreless (!) after halftime and the Saints failed to score even a single point against San Francisco. Still, the ship has been righted to some degree and, with a handful of weeks remaining in the regular season, our spirits are high when it comes to NFL winners.
In advance of this week’s five-pack of picks, let’s see where we are for the full campaign.
- Week 12: 3-2
- 2022 Season: 31-28-1
Come get these winners.
Tennessee Titans (+4.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
Tennessee is 13-3 against the spread as an underdog of at least four points under Mike Vrabel. Trends aren’t really my thing, but this one makes sense. Vrabel is very good at his job, and the Titans are playing great on defense. At three, I wouldn’t touch this, but there is sharp action on Tennessee, and I’m there as well.
New York Jets (+3) over Minnesota Vikings
Mike White? Mike White. That might be enough to justify the pick, but the Jets are actually good on defense, and they are simply different without Zach Wilson under center. We had Minnesota last week with success, but we’ll sell here.
TEASER: Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) over Denver Broncos and New York Giants (+8.5) over Washington Commanders
I came close to giving out the Giants at +2.5, but I prefer this approach. This is a Wong teaser with both games blowing through two key numbers. Baltimore should be able to hold serve against the hapless Broncos at home, while New York bumps up to two possessions at home against Taylor Heinicke. Betting on the Giants makes me queasy, but alas.
Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) over Seattle Seahawks
The Rams have the worst ATS margin (-7.5 points per game) in the entire NFL this season, and it’s been a catastrophe for Los Angeles. Because of that, I get why this number is where it is, but it’s still too many points. Just hold your nose.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
We end the week with a play that is more square than I would like, but it’s too appetizing. Cincinnati was impressive in beating Tennessee a week ago, and we benefit with a juicy number on Kansas City. The Bengals had to work very hard against the Titans, while the Chiefs sputtered a bit in what was still a comfortable win. Lay the tiny number.