Only three games remain in the NFL season, with four top-flight teams remaining in the mix for Super Bowl glory. The Divisional Round provided fireworks, even without a single all-time game to speak of, and the four-game slate was relatively kind to us with a 3-2 mark across five selections. There is less to dive into with only two games this week but, as always, we press on in search of value.
Before we dig into the AFC and NFC title games, let’s take a look at the full-season effort.
- Divisional Round: 3-2
- 2022 Season: 52-44-2
Come get these winners.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) over San Francisco 49ers
At the time of this post, the -2.5 is a consensus number and, as long as it stays below 3, I like the Eagles. San Francisco is on a 12-game winning streak, and the 49ers are very, very good. I do think Philadelphia’s overall roster strength is being undervalued by some, however, and the Eagles have the combination of the better quarterback and home-field advantage. I think Philadelphia should probably be -3.5 or -4 so we’ll gladly lay less than a field goal.
Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46.5 points
I really loved the Chiefs-Bengals under at the opener, but it got crashed and we can’t give it out at the current price. I still like this under, though, and I’m a believer in both defenses. Part of my lean to Philadelphia is a hesitance on Brock Purdy against a top-tier defense, and Philadelphia is more than willing to lean on Hurts and the ground game in a way that keeps the clock burning. Would I give this out on a full-day slate? Probably not, but we’re here and I think the number should be 45.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 277.5 passing yards (MGM)
Yes, Mahomes is banged up, bringing some risk here. With that said, he’s going to play unless things get drastically worse and, with decreased mobility, he’ll be slinging it around. Mahomes went over this number in 11 of 17 regular season games, and there is at least a chance the Chiefs get behind and have to heave it even more than usual. He’s also a freak.
Kansas City Chiefs (PK) over Cincinnati Bengals
It would’ve been nice to grab the +2.5 earlier in the week when the market went crazy. Also, this line is absolutely all over the place, and line shopping is a must. With that out of the way, I still think the Chiefs are the better team, even acknowledging Cincinnati’s success against Mahomes and company in the recent past. It would be interesting to see what the number would be if Mahomes was healthy, but the market has a swung a bit too much toward Cincinnati in the wake of an admittedly awesome performance in Buffalo. I wouldn’t want to lay 3 with KC, but we don’t have to!