The Knicks and Cavaliers both took steps forward in the 2022-23 season, but their terrific regular seasons were overshadowed by the top-3 in the East that separated themselves from the pack.
While neither is often mentioned as a true championship contender, whichever team comes out of what looks to be a fairly evenly matched 4-5 matchup (with the Cavs as -200 favorites in the series) figures to be a stern second round test for the Milwaukee Bucks (provided they avoid a shocking upset at the hand of either the Heat or Bulls). While neither team features an MVP candidate this year like the East’s top-3, there will still be plenty of elite talent on display, including three of the East’s best backcourt players — and the favorite for Sixth Man of the Year.
The road for either to upsetting one of the East’s favorite starts with a stern first round test, and here we’ll explore the keys for both teams to advance, as well as the players beyond the headliners who could play a big role in swinging this series one way or the other.
Keys for the Cavaliers
Everything for the Cavs starts with their star backcourt duo, as Donovan Mitchell (28.3 ppg/4.4 apg/4.3 rpg) and Darius Garland (21.6 ppg/7.8 apg/2.3 rpg) are the proverbial straws that stir the drink in Cleveland. Given how much of the offensive load they carry, their ability to remain as effective and efficient as they were all season will be critical. The pressure they can apply to opposing defenses is spectacular, but the Knicks will throw varied looks at them and a lot of length to try and disrupt their rhythm. Controlling the pace is something both Garland and Mitchell do very well, but it’s particularly paramount against this Knicks team not to let the offense bog down in the halfcourt and stagnate.
Just as important will be how they fare defensively against Jalen Brunson (and Immanuel Quickley). The last time they played, Brunson got loose for 48 points, outdueling a 43-point outburst from Mitchell to give the Knicks a 3-1 record over the Cavs this season. Keeping their defense out of early rotation because of Brunson and Quickley drives starts at the point of attack, where New York figures to try and test Mitchell in particular on switches given his reputation as a spotty at best on-ball defender. The Cavs backcourt will have to be locked in to keep Brunson and Quickley in front of them both in isolation and navigating screens. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are tremendous at erasing mistakes at the rim, but if they’re in rotation early, the Knicks can more easily find soft spots to attack.
Keys for the Knicks
The last time we saw the Knicks in the Playoffs, they were coming off of a similar season but struggled to replicate the same level of offensive success against the Hawks, resulting in a first round exit in five games. Julius Randle, in particular, struggled with his shooting efficiency, averaging just 18 points per game on 29.8 percent shooting from the field. This year’s Knicks team is more diverse offensively than the 2021 squad, which lends itself to more optimism that this year they can have more success, with Brunson’s presence representing the biggest upgrade on this year’s roster.
Still, there will be a lot of focus on Randle and whether he can be more effective against a very good Cavs defensive frontcourt — especially since they’ll have a more detailed gameplan for containing him than he typically faces in the regular season. This year offers a chance at redemption but against a more difficult defensive opponent. Evan Mobley’s length and quickness will be a prohibitive challenge for Randle, who all too often settled for contested shots in isolation that went begging in that series with Atlanta. His trust in the “others” will be very important, as the Cavs figure to try and get him to once again force up contested shots on the perimeter by walling off his driving lanes and showing help at the rim with Jarrett Allen. If he’s willing to be a playmaker for others, that can tilt the scales in the Knicks’ favor, but at the same time, if he takes the shots the Cavs want him to, the Knicks offense could very well sputter once again.
Defensively, the challenge for the Knicks is similar to the one I laid out for the Cavs with Brunson in that they will have to find ways to contain and frustrate the Cleveland backcourt. While Mitchell has had some big outbursts against New York this season, overall they’ve done pretty well in making sure both Garland and Mitchell don’t go off at the same time in their three wins over the Cavs — and made sure that Mitchell’s teammates don’t feed off of his big scoring nights. New York is willing to cede a big scoring night for Mitchell if it requires him to take a ton of shots and the rest of the Cavs aren’t involved, but with a week to prepare, Cleveland will surely be looking for new ways to attack what New York’s tried to do to them so far this season.
X-Factors
How much offensive support the best defensive players on both sides can provide their teams very well could swing this series. Both teams have seen steps forward from some of their best young defenders in terms of offensive impact this season, headlined by Quentin Grimes for New York and Evan Mobley for Cleveland. In the postseason, their ability to continue to provide secondary offense to their star teammates is critical, and given how many other focal points the two defenses will have to contend with, they figure to see plenty of opportunities to get offensive opportunities. Along with those two, Josh Hart and Isaac Okoro will be tasked with showing length and size to the opposing star guards, but their ability to stay on the floor hinges on whether they can be a viable offensive threat. Both have been that in the regular season, but, again, the defenses will want them to prove that first under playoff pressure before they’re willing to stop digging and helping off of them.
Then there’s the RJ Barrett question for the Knicks. The biggest reason for Cleveland being the favorite in this series is the belief that they simply have the advantage in the star department with Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Allen, compared to Brunson, Randle, and Quickley off the bench. If Barrett, who has struggled with his efficiency all season, can go from being a high volume scoring “other” to suddenly entering into that star conversation in this series, it can even the odds a bit and give New York the firepower necessary to pull the slight upset.