For the third time in four years, the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks will meet in the postseason. In 2020, it was Miami stunning Milwaukee in a 5-game drubbing on their way to the Finals. A year later, Milwaukee exacted its revenge in a sweep of the Heat on their way to a championship.
This time around, it’s in the 1-8 first round matchup after the Heat stumbled their way into the playoffs by beating the Bulls in their second Play-In game, after losing to the Hawks at home in the first. Milwaukee will be substantial favorites in the series for good reason, but Miami will look to make life difficult for the Bucks and maybe steal one early to give themselves a chance.
Keys for the Heat
For Miami, it’s pretty simple. They’re going to have to shoot the ball incredibly well from three-point range throughout the series to have a chance against the Bucks. Seeing Max Strus get going against the Bulls was a welcome sight, as he had 31 to match Jimmy Butler for top scoring honors in the win, but Miami will need more than just Strus to get going from distance if they’re to pull off the upset. Tyler Herro is going to have to be at his best, while the “others” like Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, and Kevin Love are going to need to be legit threats if they’re going to pry open the Bucks defense that is always looking to wall off the paint first. That’s always Milwaukee’s top line on the defensive gameplan, but against a Heat team so reliant on getting to the basket with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, the Bucks will be even more focused on protecting the rim in this series.
That means there will be chances to create open shots for the role players, and any chance at a stunning upset starts with them hitting shots at a higher rate than they have all season. From there, Miami will need to recapture some of the defensive magic of 2020 when they frustrated Giannis constantly. Milwaukee’s “others” are better than they were then, and that was evident in the dramatic change in outcomes in the 2021 series. Still, we’ve seen recently how the Bucks halfcourt offense can get bogged down in the playoffs, as it did against Boston a year ago, and if Miami can keep them out of transition (which, again, starts with making shots), then they can hope to get Milwaukee in the mud.
Keys for the Bucks
For Milwaukee, their focus should be on creating a good rhythm on offense. They are an elite defensive team and Miami’s offense doesn’t scare you much no matter who you are, but the way this becomes a tight series is if their offense falters in the halfcourt. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the least of my concerns for Milwaukee, as he has shown the last two postseasons that he’s going to show up and be his MVP-caliber self most every night no matter the defense in front of him.
However, Jrue Holiday in particular needs to get off to a good start in this series as he has had a tendency to become very inefficient offensively in the playoffs. In his two postseasons with the Bucks, he’s posted 39.6/30.8/75.9 shooting splits across 35 games, which is enough of a sample that there’s at least some genuine concern. Part of that is him increasing his defensive intensity and taking on the opposition’s top perimeter matchup, but even so, the Bucks could really use for him to be more like the regular season version of himself offensively in order to make a deep run.
Khris Middleton being back in the fold after missing the conference semis a year ago should help alleviate some of the pressure placed on Holiday to create so much. That said, expect Milwaukee to look for ways to manage Middleton’s minutes load as they have all season to try and keep him fresh for the later rounds as he continues to manage his knee issues. He’s started to find a rhythm in the second half of the season, and if he can be close to his 2021 level, that’s what will unlock the Bucks’ full potential as a contender. Milwaukee getting the 1-seed allows them to avoid having to possibly play both of the other East top dogs, and with that comes the hope that their stars won’t have to put up quite the same minutes load as the Celtics and Sixers in the early rounds.
X-Factors
Tyler Herro is the one player on the Heat capable of taking their offense to another level, but he rarely is consistent enough game to game to be counted on as a major factor in a series. Still, he’s their one hope at finding someone who can just get hot and force Milwaukee to adapt its gameplan defensively. If he can find a way to do that against the Bucks’ length and pressure, things can open up more for Butler and Adebayo — who likewise needs to consistently assert himself offensively in a way we haven’t seen from him. Both of those things are big asks, but that’s how it goes for a considerable underdog.
On Milwaukee’s side, it’s the shooting of the “others” that can determine whether this series requires real work of their stars or can be a relative breeze in four or five games, as the Bucks would love to have as the 1-seed. Joe Ingles, Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, and Jevon Carter all figure to remain in the rotation for the first round (and given Mike Budenholzer’s tendencies to keep his rotations deep, probably most of the postseason as well), and if they can knock down shots at a strong clip, it’s hard to see the Heat having much of a chance.