The worst playoff series of Michael Porter Jr.’s career happened almost exactly two years ago. Facing the third-seeded Phoenix Suns in the 2021 Western Conference Semifinals, Porter was relentlessly targeted defensively and averaged 15.3 points on a paltry 51.4 percent true shooting as the Denver Nuggets got swept. The struggles were glaring and unnerving as the Nuggets watched a once-promising season abruptly end. It must be said that this was partly due to injuries, and Porter was among those impacted — he seemingly tweaked his back in Game 1, which hampered his mobility and exacerbated or ignited some of these foibles.
Regardless, as a healthy Porter and fully stocked Nuggets squad prepare for their encore Western Conference Semifinal date with the Suns, the 6’10 sniper is readying for a monumental role. He and Denver are seeking a second Western Conference Finals appearance in four seasons. Porter is a big reason they’re in this spot. He’s playing some of the best two-way basketball of his career to complement superstar center Nikola Jokic and has diversified his skill-set since the last time he met Phoenix in the playoffs.
Against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round, Porter averaged 16.4 points on 61.2 percent true shooting. Much of that production came how you’d expect, with Porter splashing home triples in a bevy of ways (42.4 percent beyond the arc) and darting to the rim for buckets when the defense’s focus wandered elsewhere.
Yet he also flashed some off-the-bounce verve that’s grown throughout the season and illuminates a few areas of development for him. Porter’s handle and flexibility have significantly improved. There’s more wiggle in his dribble to beat or avoid defenders and he’s better equipped to contort around help at the rim. In 2020-21, Porter’s last full season, he scored on 68.1 percent of his drives, per NBA.com. This year, that rate perked up to 78.2 percent.
The Suns’ defense looked rather tenuous against an injury depleted Los Angeles Clippers squad in round one, evidenced by their 116.3 defensive rating. I’m fascinated to see how they approach the defensive matchups for the conference semis. I presume Deandre Ayton will wrangle with Jokic, Chris Paul will tail Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Kevin Durant faces Aaron Gordon to potentially act as a roamer off the ball.
But the biggest question is how do they dole out the Porter and Jamal Murray assignments? Whomever starts between Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie likely takes Murray, although Booker’s play on that end of the floor might make him the preferred candidate. Plus, Craig or Okogie’s physicality could be appealing on Porter in an effort to negate his off-ball screen usage.
The good news for Denver, should it venture that direction, is the Suns collectively were flummoxed last series tracking Norman Powell around pindowns, which the Nuggets enjoys dialing up for Porter. Although he’s nowhere close to the explosive or punishing driver of Powell, navigating the concept itself presents challenges for Phoenix and is an action with which he’s adept. Porter can torch anyone unprepared to chase him around waves of off-ball screens and mirror his intrinsic motion, and the Nuggets are entirely willing to scale up his usage when those games arise.
His burgeoning versatility complicates the job for defenders, who generally consider running him off the line a suitable result. Nowadays, slowing him is more complex and the mismatches the Nuggets can or cannot scheme for him off the ball is an angle I’m monitoring. The Suns will likely aim to stash and hide Paul on Caldwell-Pope. Can Denver force him onto Porter and exploit that matchup in a reversal of the roles in 2021, when Paul hunted Porter? Denver is pretty creative with its off-ball X’s and O’s, so this reality is certainly plausible.
Phoenix will have enough problems addressing Jokic’s brilliance, Murray’s shot-making, and their splendid two-man game. If Porter is scoring the ball effectively in varying manners to either reorient defensive gameplans or at least embed another layer of worries, that’s a gigantic win for the Nuggets. If that happens or the Suns have to adjust their coverage on Porter, what are the ripple effects schematically and rotationally? Does a shift in matchups ease matters for Murray on the ball and in pick-and-rolls? Will the Suns elect for more size on Porter and sacrifice their already scarce spacing off the bench?
For all the strain the Nuggets’ offense will inflict upon the Suns, the inverse exists as well, as these are two of the most prolific offenses in basketball. Denver tends to play Jokic at the level in pick-and-rolls. I expect that to continue against Booker and Durant, with the goal to funnel touches to their shaky supporting cast. In these instances, Porter is usually the low man asked to rotate on the backside and tag rollers. The Nuggets’ backside execution when Jokic is at the level is paramount to their defensive performance — I don’t think there’s anything more paramount, in fact. When the defense has looked good this season, it’s directly tied to the backside rotations being crisp. As the low man, Porter kicks off those backside rotations.
When he first joined the starting unit in 2020-21 and assumed this responsibility, he had a habit of rotating far too early and simplifying reads for ball-handlers out of pick-and-rolls. It was as though he knew to tag and did so robotically without surveying how a play unfolded. Phoenix and Paul took advantage of this repeatedly the last time they saw him in the postseason.
That habit is much less prevalent today. He’s refined his timing and technique considerably. His 6’10 frame and 7-foot wingspan can be legit deterrents inside. He’s still nailing down some of his positioning and angles, but he’s gone from someone who merely knows to tag the roller to someone who knows how to impactfully tag the roller. That’s a vital distinction and the bedrock of his progression as an interior defender.
Porter was excellent fulfilling these duties against Minnesota. The job is much harder against Phoenix. If Booker or Durant is captaining a pick-and-roll, the Suns love slotting the other in the weakside corner because they often produce open threes. Can Porter frustrate Ayton, who’s prone to combusting against crowds and pressure on the roll? The goal should be to limit the volume of Ayton at the rim and those star-laden corner triples. Floaters and short jumpers are acceptable outcomes from Ayton, and confronting him early and properly on the roll is the path to achieving that; his short-roll reps against the Clippers were erratic. Porter’s efforts will be central to extending the trend.
The main talking points in most series are shaped by the stars. I frequently find myself drawn to the ancillary members first, and Porter fits that bill. He’s emerging into such a dynamic and striking third option offensively, while increasingly meeting the demands of his defensive tasks.
The Denver offense is going to score. While the Nuggets doesn’t have to be a defensive juggernaut in this series, they cannot no-show on that end of the floor, either. If they do enough to occasionally stymie the Suns and win the series, Porter will be a major component. If he is, a narrative of redemption following 2021 should surface for him, but the more fitting story is one of development and how he’s built himself into much, much more than an ethereal shooter.