This year’s class of NBA free agents features some big names. A few days out from the start of free agency, however, we have some sense of where a number of the best players on the market are going to go.
Rumors indicate that the widespread expectation is for the likes of Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Jerami Grant, and Nikola Vucevic to all re-sign with their current teams, with most of those deals likely getting announced within the first few hours of free agency opening. With those names not really in contention for most of the league, and only a handful of teams holding considerable cap space, this year’s free agency features more discussion about possible trades shifting the league’s balance of power (see: Lillard, Damian) than it does a major free agent move swinging things.
That said, there are still a number of free agents that figure to have a number of potential suitors and will be intriguing to keep an eye on as the offseason begins in earnest. Here, we’ll highlight 10 that stand out as players that could see bidding wars, find their way to new teams, and even shift some team’s championship hopes for better or worse.
Fred VanVleet (UFA)
With Harden expected to return to Philly by all accounts, VanVleet is now the point guard Houston is setting its sights on to try and throw a gigantic deal at to pry away from Toronto. A report from Jake Fischer on Tuesday indicated a 2-year, $80 million offer could be on the table for VanVleet from Houston, as max money even for a shorter term could entice VanVleet to leave Toronto. What makes that scenario so interesting isn’t just what it means for Houston’s cap space and who else they could pursue, but whether losing VanVleet would force the Raptors to reassess their plans. While it seems right now that Plan A in Toronto is to run it back, hoping for things to finally click with their group, losing VanVleet would throw a significant wrench in that plan, because they wouldn’t really have much recourse to replace him. Perhaps that leads to Toronto re-engaging in trade talks, even if on just one of their other stars, to try and create some better roster balance, which the rest of the league will certainly have significant interest in.
Bruce Brown (UFA)
Brown’s season in Denver represents the new gold standard of value signings, as he came in on a 2-year, $13 million deal and bolstered what became a championship roster for the Nuggets. While a very drunk Michael Malone insisted “Brucey B ain’t going anywhere,” Denver very well could run into the problem of not being able to pay him enough. Brown has now put his unique skillset on display in two places, Brooklyn and Denver, and is the kind of player every team will think they can use. That makes for a fascinating free agency and also makes Brown one of the rare non-stars who figures to have the luxury of choice this summer. He won’t be picking between just a few teams, as anyone with a mid-level will make an overture and he can try and find the happy medium between money and situation.
Dillon Brooks (UFA)
Brooks is one of the most talked about players in the NBA, for better or (often) worse, and with Memphis having officially moved on from Brooks by upgrading to Marcus Smart, he is in need of a new team. In news that shouldn’t surprise anyone, Brooks is seeking out a big contract (bigger than the mid-level, per Marc Stein), but given his baggage and lack of offensive juice, it’s going to be interesting to see what kind of market takes shape for him. He is a very good wing defender and there are plenty of teams that need exactly that, but finding the balance between what Dillon Brooks believes his value is and what the rest of the league does could take a little time.
Brook Lopez (UFA)
The Bucks will want to bring back Brook Lopez, as he’s been their defensive anchor and plays a considerable role in making them a perennial contender. That said, Lopez is one of very few high-level centers hitting the market this summer (particularly after Naz Reid signed an extension in Minnesota) and Milwaukee will have competition to bring him back. Houston’s interest in Lopez has been noted by many, and if they strike out on Harden and VanVleet, they might have gobs of money to throw at Lopez to pair him with a point guard on a tier below the superstars. With tax apron considerations in Milwaukee, Houston could out-bid the Bucks and, if he wants to cash in for likely the last time in his career, it’d be hard to begrudge Lopez for taking the best deal he can get. If he were to leave, it’d be very hard for Milwaukee to replace him and that could shift their priorities this summer.
Gabe Vincent (UFA)
Vincent made himself some money with his play this postseason, and with so much buzz about Miami targeting Lillard, he very well might be in a new uniform next season. He’s going to be waiting to see what happens with that star level group, as he’ll either be a potential replacement should one shockingly leave or he could be a consolation prize for a team that misses out and is still looking to bolster their point guard rotation. He also could stay with Miami, but how they’re allocating money will likely depend on what happens with Lillard.
Max Strus (UFA)
Speaking of Heat free agents, Strus is another of Miami’s scouting and player development wins that could cash in on his success with the Heat somewhere else. The Heat will certainly want him back, but with a cluttered cap sheet, we’ll have to see how much they’d be willing to pay compared to others. He figures to be in play for teams looking to add shooting with some of their mid-level money, and given his skillset, Strus could have a fairly long list of suitors.
D’Angelo Russell (UFA)
I have no idea what the market will be for Russell. He showed his value in the second half of the season in L.A., where his scoring abilities gave a boost to a Lakers team in desperate need of some more offensive juice. He also showed in the postseason that it’s hard to have him on the floor when his shot isn’t falling in what was almost the exact same sized sample as his post-deadline stint in the regular season. He, like Vincent, probably has to wait out the star level guys to see where the money is and if any of the teams with space miss out on their top targets on the point guard market. If not, a return to the Lakers isn’t completely out of the question, but there will also be sign-and-trade rumblings around Russell as well.
Harrison Barnes (UFA)
With the Kings clearing cap room to have a chance to make a run at a bigger name on the wing between De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, Barnes figures to be very gettable in free agency. He had a terrific regular season, starting all 82 games for the 3-seed Kings, but he (like most of the Kings role players) had a dreadful shooting series against the Warriors. Still, there should be plenty of teams needing a player with Barnes’ skillset and he’s shown his value in Sacramento as a steady handed veteran alongside a young, up-and-coming roster. Given most of the teams with cap space are hoping to be a team on the rise next year, it shouldn’t be hard for him to sell them on using some of their space to bring him in. The alternative is Barnes wanting to stay with a contender and not go through the ups and downs of a rebuild again, which might lower his annual salary but could find the right situation via a sign-and-trade.
Cam Johnson (RFA)
By all accounts, Cam Johnson is the restricted free agent that will be the most in demand and is the most likely to see a team put forth a monsterous offer sheet to try and make the Brooklyn Nets blink. While Brooklyn is reportedly planning on matching anything up to the 4-year, $100 million mark, the Detroit Pistons are the team most consider a threat for the sharpshooter and are mulling an offer above that $100 million threshold. Monty Williams coached Johnson in Phoenix, the Pistons have lots of money to spend, and Detroit could use a young upgrade on the wing. They aren’t the only possible suitor — Sacramento has been clearing space and Indiana likewise has room and could use him — but the Pistons seem like the most likely to be willing to put up a big number. It’s been a few years since we had a legit big RFA offer early in free agency, but Detroit has plenty of room to make a run at Johnson and see if Brooklyn will blink.
Grant Williams (RFA)
The most gettable RFA on the market, at least in terms of guys who have proven to be solid rotation players on a contender, figures to be Grant Williams. After Boston traded for Kristaps Porzingis, Williams is expendable in Boston and the Celtics will be open to sign-and-trade conversations about the power forward. Williams has become a reliable 3-and-D power forward, but the big question is what he wants most out of free agency. If he’s content to continue playing that role on a contender, there will probably be some sign-and-trade options available. However, if he wants to try and prove himself in a larger role, it’s not immediately clear what teams are willing to give him that opportunity and the payday that comes with it.