It’s been a relatively strong start to our 2023 NFL picks in this space. We’re winning more than we lose and, considering the difficulty of the NFL market, that is basically all you can ask for. However, the losses have been hysterically dire in recent days. We had the Packers and Giants in Week 4. We had the Patriots (lol) and Cowboys (lol) in Week 5. It’s really quite something.
At any rate, Week 5 was a positive showing, and we’re back for more in Week 6. First, we take overall stock.
- Week 5: 3-2
- 2023 Season: 13-10-2
Come get these winners.
Baltimore Ravens (-4) over Tennessee Titans — Widely Available
We won against Baltimore last week with Mike Tomlin home voodoo. That was fun, to be sure, but the Ravens are now undervalued after that high-profile loss. The Ravens dropped myriad passes and largely collapsed but, from a true talent standpoint, I have Baltimore rated considerably better than Tennessee. This is an international game, so keep that in mind, but the Ravens at a flat 4 are a play.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks — Widely Available
I’m buying back in on the Bengals. It may be too early — and there are definitely some injury concerns with Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins — but this is a short number for me. That isn’t to say that Seattle is a bad team, because I don’t believe that to be true, but I have this Bengals -3.5 or 4. I’ll gladly lay less than a field goal.
TEASER: Washington Commanders (+8.5) over Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5) over Dallas Cowboys — Widely Available
Atlanta’s offense isn’t exactly the most high-powered bunch, and we like Washington moving through both keys from 2.5 to 8.5 this week. On Monday, the Chargers are getting 2.5 at home against a Cowboys team that should be up after a bad loss. With that said, Los Angeles hasn’t played a game (win or lose) that has been decided by more than a touchdown this season. The Chargers can’t stop playing close games and, if we need to get in the backdoor, Justin Herbert can take us there.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over Detroit Lions — BetRivers
The whole league is buzzing about the Lions but this is a tricky spot. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye at home, and Detroit is priced like an upper-tier team in this spot. That might be true in the end, but I think this should be 3 at the absolute most. If you can nab 3.5 like we did, I like it.
New York Giants (+14.5) over Buffalo Bills — Widely Available
Lord help me. At the time of this post, we don’t know who New York’s quarterback will be. We don’t know if Saquon Barkley will play. I get why no one wants to be backing the G Men. I will say that Tyrod Taylor is a competent backup and, with the way Danny Jones and company are playing on offense, that isn’t a big downgrade for me. From there, Buffalo is obviously much, much better than New York, but more than two touchdowns is a bit extreme for me. That is particularly true given all of the defensive injuries for Buffalo and a total in the mid-40’s. Hold your nose.