The midway point of the 2023 NFL season has come and gone. The trade deadline is behind us and, while it isn’t the stretch run just yet, things are beginning to take shape. More and more data is coming in, which can be quite useful in this space, but we managed to churn our way to a .500 week in Week 8 and stay afloat for the season. Of course, it was one sequence away from a 3-2 week before the Browns turned a 3-point lead into a 4-point loss and effectively snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but I digress.
At any rate, Week 9 is here, bye weeks are back, and here is a look at the progress through the first 40 selections of the season.
- Week 8: 2-2-1
- 2023 Season: 22-15-3
Come get these winners.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) over Miami Dolphins — FanDuel
I have an underutilized principle, and it states that I will take the Chiefs on a neutral field against anyone if they are relatively healthy and laying less than a field goal. I’ll acknowledge this could get weird in Germany and that Miami is dangerous, but I think KC should be a larger favorite than this. It doesn’t hurt that Mahomes and company are coming off a hideous performance a week ago and we’re buying low.
TEASER: Carolina Panthers (+8.5) over Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Chicago Bears — Widely Available
Teasers have been fairly good to us this season, and we’re going back to the well. Carolina has been friskier than the market seems to think, and this teaser moves through two numbers for a home underdog. The flip side is New Orleans laying less than a field goal against Tyson Bagent at home. The fundamentals are strong.
Washington Commanders (+3) over New England Patriots — Widely Available
Yes, the Commanders just held something of a fire sale, and the perception of Washington is rock bottom right now. However, that gets us to a key number of three against a Patriots team with a thoroughly uninspiring offense. It may not be pretty, but it’s a valuable line in the direction of the underdog.
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles — PointsBet
Most shops are at three, but PointsBet is dealing 3.5 as of Thursday evening when this is posted. I like it at three as well, but if you can shop it, shop it. At any rate, I like what I’ve seen from Dallas the last two games, and Philadelphia hasn’t been as dominant as their win-loss record suggests.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) over New York Jets
In general, I like the Chargers more on the road than at home, largely because they don’t actually have a home-field advantage. This is a long trip, to be sure, but I’m higher on the Chargers and lower on the Jets than most. It’s not often we have a road favorite of more than a field goal, but here we are.