Hello, Thanksgiving! As always, Thanksgiving is not only a time for food and family, but also a time for NFL action. Three games are on the slate on Thursday and, for the first time ever, the NFL is also taking over Black Friday with a game in a national window. Of course, you are not legally required to bet on every single game (I know, I know), but we strive to bring value wherever it can be found. That often takes us to some ugly places, but Week 11 was profitable and, well, it would’ve been more profitable if not for the work of Cade Otton.
I digress but, before diving into the five picks for Week 12, let’s take a glance at the overall landscape.
- Week 11: 3-2
- 2023 Season: 29-23-3
Come get these winners.
Washington Commanders (+12.5) over Dallas Cowboys — Widely Available
Well, this is the only play we’re listing on Thanksgiving, and it may not be fun. However, the look-ahead number was 9.5 and it has ballooned all the way to 12.5 after Week 11’s results. I do understand why it happened, but that kind of move is unwarranted in my view. Washington is happy to sneak into the backdoor with a meaningless late score if needed, and this is just too many points.
TEASER: Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns (+7.5) over Denver Broncos — FanDuel
I’m mortified by the inclusion of Jake Browning in a teaser, but bear with me. The Steelers haven’t won a game by more than seven points all season, and while Pittsburgh did (finally) move on from Matt Canada, that doesn’t fix everything in less than a week. It’s a division game with a total in the mid-3o’s for good measure. From there, Cleveland is facing a Denver team that is walking through the rain drops with insane turnover luck as of late. The Browns have the best unit in this game with their defense and, again, this is a line moving through key numbers with an extremely low total.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Widely Available
The Colts are coming off a bye, and the Bucs got banged around by the 49ers last week. Tampa Bay has also played six straight weeks, and the underlying metrics solidly favor Indy in this matchup. As noted above, we almost got home with the Bucs last week, but it’s time to fade in a tough spot for Tampa.
Buffalo Bills (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles — DraftKings
I’ve already seen this referred to as a “fishy” line in multiple places this week. After all, the Eagles are 9-1 and the Bills are 6-5, so how does this line make sense in Philadelphia? Well, the oddsmakers are seeing the same thing that I’m seeing in that Buffalo remains undervalued. Make no mistake, Philadelphia is quite good, but they’ve been quite fortunate in two or three of their victories. If you can nab the hook, take it.
TEASER: Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) over Arizona Cardinals AND Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) over Las Vegas Raiders — FanDuel
We’ve had the Rams a few times of late, and I remain higher than the market on Los Angeles. Now, they are facing an Arizona team that I’m having trouble buying. Kansas City is the only favorite I like as a teaser leg this week, and despite a short week, the Chiefs should take care of business in the desert.