Only five weeks remain in the 2023 NFL regular season, and bye weeks are slowly coming to an end. That means opportunity from a handicapping perspective, and a nearly full slate is on tap in Week 14. In this space, Week 13 wasn’t a full-fledged disaster, but it was a losing week overall. Of course, it was a half-point away from success, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Alas, Week 14 is a fresh start.
Before we get into the upcoming slate, let’s look back at the season-long work.
- Week 13: 2-3
- 2023 Season: 34-28-3
Come get these winners.
Chicago Bears (+3.5) over Detroit Lions — PointsBet
At the time of this post, the weather report looks better in Chicago than it did earlier this week. I’d rather it stay brutal, but I like this either way. Chicago appears to just have the better defense in this matchup, and Jared Goff isn’t usually the same quarterback outside in the elements. Chicago also covered and should’ve won outright in Detroit on Thanksgiving, and this number should be lower.
TEASER: Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) over Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills (+7.5) over Kansas City Chiefs — Widely Available
I love the Ravens teaser leg this week. Baltimore is coming off a bye and the market might be a touch high on the Rams now. Plus, this is a friendly matchup for Baltimore on both sides of the ball. From there, Buffalo may not win, but the Chiefs are mortal right now on offense, and this is an urgent spot for the Bills coming off a bye.
Seattle Seahawks (+11) over San Francisco 49ers — DraftKings
The market couldn’t possibly be any higher on the 49ers right now, and that’s understandable after the destruction in Philadelphia last week. Still, this is a great spot for Seattle with a rest advantage and a number that is very clearly inflated. It won’t be fun to sweat, but it’s the side.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) over Denver Broncos — DraftKings
The run of great fortune finally ran out for the Broncos last week, but the underlying metrics don’t paint the best picture for Denver. Yes, the Chargers looked awful on offense last week, but they got there for us. We’re going back to the well in a spot where the world is on the Broncos.
TEASER: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) over Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) over Cincinnati Bengals — FanDuel
This is unsightly, but I like both spots. We’ve gone with teaser legs against the Falcons a number of times this year, to good success. Atlanta is content to play bafflingly middling offense, leading to few lopsided results. That’s also a total in the low 40’s that is exploitable. On the other side, the projected weather conditions seem to favor the Colts, and I think the market is more confident in Jake Browning after one quality start than I am.