Christmas is here and the NFL season is ramping up. Week 16 begins on Thursday and covers high-end action on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday to boot. Week 15 was relatively friendly to us in this space, even if a 3-1-1 performance almost felt disappointing on account of an unfortunate push from the Chicago Bears. Still, the momentum is helpful as the stretch run arrives, and five more picks are on the way.
Before we get to the holiday schedule, let’s take stock.
- Week 15: 3-1-1
- 2023 Season: 39-32-4
Come get these winners.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) over Detroit Lions — Widely Available
We loved Detroit last week. It went well. That’s always nice. We’re going the other way this time around. Minnesota catching a full field goal is too appetizing to pass up in a game I would make closer to a pick’em with current rosters. Let’s ride.
TEASER: Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) over Atlanta Falcons — FanDuel
Our weekly teaser is gross but appealing. Jacksonville might not have Trevor Lawrence, which is terrifying, but they can get us home through two key numbers. Atlanta became a notably larger favorite after changing quarterbacks and, while that does make some sense with the way Desmond Ridder was playing, it puts us squarely in the Wong teaser zone on Indianapolis.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals — PointsBet
I won’t even give the stats on Mike Tomlin as a home underdog. Just know they are quite good. Beyond that, this is an insane amount of respect for Jake Browning on the road, especially without Ja’Marr Chase. We have principles.
New England Patriots and Denver Broncos UNDER 34.5 points — FanDuel
This is a (very) low number, but it’s the play. We profited from a Denver meltdown against Detroit a week ago but, aside from that, the Broncos have been quite solid on defense. The Patriots are always good on that side of the ball as well, and New England’s offense… does not scare anyone. Let’s get home at 17-13 or something.
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) over San Francisco 49ers — Widely Available
Many have referred to this matchup as a potential Super Bowl preview, and it might be. It’s definitely the best game of the week. Fundamentally, I just can’t get to this number, especially with where the total is. It isn’t fun to stand in front of the 49ers train, but we’ll have to do it this week.