Each year, the NFL season rolls along and, while some weeks are more difficult to decipher than others due to byes and other considerations, there is a 17-week run of relative normalcy. Then, Week 18 happens. Yes, some games are still “normal” in that both teams are incentivized to play at their maximum levels, but most of the slate is a complete mess. Which teams will rest starters? Which teams will punt entirely? Which teams really care about the No. 4 seed compared to the No. 3 seed and so on?
In short, it’s a very, very difficult week to handicap and, as such, it is the only time during the regular season in which we won’t be handing out five selections. Week 17 was solid with a 3-2 mark that could’ve rather easily been 5-0 with a couple of breaks, and the season-long progress is below.
- Week 17: 3-2
- 2023 Season: 44-37-4
Come get these winners.
Baltimore Ravens (+4) over Pittsburgh Steelers — Caesars
The Ravens are going to rest basically anyone they can rest in this game, which is why the line is what it is. In the NFL and with 53-man rosters, though, teams simply can’t rest everyone, and the line move is too aggressive here. Baltimore is still extremely well-coached. This game has a low total. Pittsburgh has middling quarterback play. And, for the grand finale, fading the “must-win scenario” in Week 18 has been profitable over many years. There you have it.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars — Widely Available
It would’ve been nice to get this earlier in the week, but this column usually comes out on Thursday. In an effort to get to three picks, we’re staying with the Titans. Tennessee is playing spoiler and, as noted above, it’s a spot where the market can overreact. Trevor Lawrence’s injury is part of the calculus too, but this could be a slugfest and we’re still nabbing more than a field goal.
New York Giants (+5.5) over Philadelphia Eagles — FanDuel/MGM
This a game with a total in the low 40’s and that helps to inform the play. I also trust Tyrod Taylor a lot more than the previous quarterback play in New York, and Philadelphia’s defense is floundering. I understand the motivational angles against the Giants, but it’s a division game and the Giants have been competitive, even while playing out the string.