The Divisional Round is always riveting in the NFL world, and that was the case a week ago. While not every game was elite, there was plenty of drama, including a memorable close to the slate with a tight one between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. In this space, we found reasonable success with a 2-1 record on a reduced slate, but there is also a hint of sadness in the reality of only three NFL games remaining this season.
Alas, we’ll make the most of them. Or at least try to. Before we hand out some picks for Conference Championship Weekend, let’s check on the full-season work.
- Divisional Round Weekend: 2-1
- 2023 Season: 51-40-4
Come get these winners.
Kansas City Chiefs (+4) over Baltimore Ravens — DraftKings
Let me get this out of the way. I don’t love either side or total this week. If this was a normal week, I would punt on both games. But here we are. I think the Ravens are more likely to win the game outright at home, but if you’re giving me the full four points with Patrick Mahomes in what could be a low-scoring game, I’m taking them on principle.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 36.5 pass attempts— DraftKings
The Chiefs have wisely leaned more on Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce after the disaster that was their receiving corps for most of the year. Furthermore, this number has gone over in four of the last six games and, while the Over/Under total is not high here, I’ll be surprised if the Chiefs are trying to smash Isiah Pacheco into the line against Baltimore. This isn’t one that is likely to fly over in the third quarter, but I like the value.
Justice Hill OVER 12.5 receiving yards — Widely Available
Hill has been a more prominent part of Baltimore’s attack in recent weeks, including three of the last four games going over this number. The Ravens are going to have to sling it at some point here, and Hill should get a couple of screen calls to get us home.
Christian McCaffrey UNDER 19.5 rushing attempts — Widely Available
This was actually at 20 or 20.5 in some spots this week, and I hope you got it. San Francisco projects to throw more than usual in this game, at least in my view, and McCaffrey has only gone over this total four times all year. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll be prominently involved, but this number is inflated. Hopefully we’ll see Elijah Mitchell a couple of times.
Detroit Lions (+7.5) over San Francisco 49ers — PointsBet, DraftKings
Like I said above, I don’t love the sides, but when this nudged above seven in a couple of places, I took it. Those hooks are still available, and between San Francisco’s offensive line challenges, a hint of concern with Brock Purdy, and the injury concerns with Deebo Samuel, I’m leaning more toward Detroit. I don’t think the Niners are a terrible teaser leg, but the 7.5 is enough for me.