With the final day of the WNBA regular season upon us, the playoff picture is mostly set. The New York Liberty (32-7) have the 1-seed locked up, while the Lynx (30-9) have pulled away with the 2-seed, as their 7-game winning streak has cemented their place in the standings.
The Sun (27-12) and Aces (26-13) are still technically battling for the 3-seed, as the Aces hold the tiebreaker over the Sun, but Vegas’ injury report lists a number of top players as doubtful for the final game as they seem fine holding down the 4-seed and facing the Storm (24-15) in the first round. Indiana (20-19) and Phoenix (19-20) are locked in as the 6- and 7-seeds respectively as the Fever have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Mercury, no matter if they both finish 20-20.
The real battle on the final day of the season is for the 8-seed, where the Dream (14-25) hold a one-game lead on the Mystics (13-26) and Sky (13-26) for the final playoff position. Here, we’ll go over the scenarios that can lead to each team getting the 8-seed, starting with the most likely team in that spot, Atlanta.
Atlanta Dream Clinch Scenarios
Atlanta win
If the Dream win, they’re in. It’s that simple, and while facing the best team in the league isn’t the ideal spot to be in for that scenario, they will be getting a New York team likely looking to just get out of the regular season finale healthy and ready to go for the playoffs. Still, the Liberty might not want to give the Dream any ideas that they could win a first round series with New York, as that’d be the matchup, so we’ll have to see exactly how the Liberty play it.
Atlanta loss, Chicago loss, Washington loss
If all three teams lose, then the Dream also clinch as they already have a 1-game lead for eighth.
Atlanta loss, Washington win, Chicago loss
If Atlanta loses and Chicago loses to the Sun, the Dream are in no matter what happens between the Fever and Mystics. That’s because the Dream and Mystics split their season series 2-2, which pushes the tiebreaker to “record against teams above .500”, which favors Atlanta (who would be 4-18) over Washington (who would be 3-17).
Washington Mystics Clinch Scenario
Washington Win, Chicago Win, Atlanta Loss
Mystics fans hoping for a postseason berth will be rooting not only for Washington against Indiana, but also will need the Sky to beat the Sun. That is because this scenario triggers the three-way tie-breaker, which is the combined head-to-head records of each team, which favors Washington (5-3) over Atlanta (4-4) and Chicago (3-5).
Chicago Sky Clinch Scenario
Chicago win, Atlanta loss, Washington loss
There’s also only one way for the Sky to get into the postseason, and that is to beat the Sun and have both the Dream and the Sky lose. The Sky have a 2-2 record against Atlanta on the season, which pushes it to the second tiebreaker and Chicago would be 5-17 against above-.500 competition, while the Dream would be 4-18, giving the Sky the 8-seed.