Well, this is embarrassing. For the first time in the history of this column dating back to 2017, we are 1-9 over a two-week span. It’s been disastrous in every way, rankings from picks I would make again (hello, Titans) to picks that never had a chance (hello, Panthers). Alas, we press on with an aim toward finding our sea legs. Hey, at least there is a long way to go in the 2024 season.
Before diving into the Week 3 slate that we can only hope will be more favorable, let’s establish the hideous baseline.
- Week 2: 0-5
- 2024 Season: 1-9
Come get these winners.
Indianapolis Colts (PK) over Chicago Bears — Caesars
The Colts are 0-2, and we’re buying low. Neither loss was particularly lopsided, even as Week 2 was somewhat alarming against Malik Willis and the Packers. Anthony Richardson should also be more comfortable at home, and here is a stat that will cover a few of ours picks today: In the last ten years, NFL teams with 0-2 records are 42-23-1 (65 percent) against the spread in Week 3 when facing an opponent that is not 0-2. This isn’t a huge “trends” column, but this one is up our alley. Buy low.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) over Green Bay Packers — FanDuel
I can’t believe I’m doing this again, but we have principles. Will Levis might be a “no thanks” forever if this doesn’t get home, but the Titans fit the 0-2 stat cited above. Also, Tennessee has been the “right side” in both losses, and this is an instance in which we’re probably getting Malik Willis on the road on the other side. There is a small chance that Jordan Love plays and, if he does, I won’t love this. But we’re laying the small number.
Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) over Miami Dolphins — Widely Available
We’re laying more than a field goal? That’s right. We are. I’ve been higher than the market on Seattle every week this season, and this is also an explicit fade of the Tua-less Dolphins. Take us there, Geno.
TEASER: Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) over New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) over Washington Commanders — Widely Available
The Saints have been one of the more positive stories of the season, and they look amazing. I’m still a bit skeptical that they should be laying points against Philadelphia, and we love a good Wong teaser leg that sends a competent team from +2.5 to +8.5. On the other side, Cincinnati is 0-2, playing at home, and facing a team that is remarkably flawed in Washington. Let’s ride.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) over Buffalo Bills — BetMGM
One more time, we’ll ride with an 0-2 team in dire need of a bounce-back. Candidly, I am quite high on the Bills in the aggregate, but nabbing +5.5 is a good idea. Hopefully, Jacksonville will actually unearth Christian Kirk and maybe even let Trevor Lawrence use his legs a bit.