The NFL season is in full swing as we head into Week 5, and we are starting to get an early idea of what teams are going to be a factor in the various divisional races. There’s still plenty of time for teams to right the ship (or, conversely, fall apart), but we can start focusing in on key games in each division that figure to loom large when it comes time to sort out playoff seeding at the end of the season.
This week features a couple of those, starting with a Thursday night battle in the always tight (even if not always good) NFC South between the Bucs and the Falcons. That leads our Week 5 preview as we take a look at the biggest games of the week, last week’s best performance, and offer up our best bet of the week.
Primetime Game of the Week: Buccaneers at Falcons (Thursday 10/3, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video)
The other two primetime games this week — Cowboys at Steelers on Sunday, Saints at Chiefs on Monday — are also interesting, but none of them are the sort of high-profile matchup between Super Bowl contenders that make this space easy. As such, let’s go with the divisional matchup on Thursday between arguably the best story in the league through the first month of the year, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, and an NFC South foe that entered the year with aspirations of winning the conference, the Falcons.
I am beyond fired up to see how Atlanta deals with Mayfield’s ability to throw the ball down the field, particularly to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The chess match between Mayfield and star Falcons safety Jesse Bates is going to be a blast, especially because Atlanta isn’t especially great at speeding up or getting to quarterbacks. And on the other side of things, while the Bucs have been pretty good against the pass, teams have carved them up on the ground — they’re allowing five yards per rushing attempt, the third-worst mark in the league, and have to go up against Bijan Robinson, who was banged up this week but is still one of the most dangerous running backs in football. If he gets going, and Kirk Cousins can use the play action game to throw the ball, look out.
You always need to temper expectations a bit with Thursday Night Football, but this game does have a fun mix of stakes in the division, stakes in the conference, and two pretty fun football teams. Maybe this ends up being a 17-10 stinker where Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit clearly wish they could just go home, but I’d bet against it.
Sunday Funday Game of the Week: Bills at Texans (Sunday 10/6, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Stefon Diggs revenge game should be a blast, because even beyond the obvious storyline with Diggs going up against his old team, Buffalo and Houston are two squads with legitimate aspirations of winning the AFC this season. They’re both 3-1, and while the Bills have been the longtime No. 1 contender in the conference for the Chiefs’ crown, the Texans have legitimate aspirations of taking that perch and, eventually, overtaking Kansas City.
Houston could really use Joe Mixon back from the ankle injury that has cost him the last three games — their rushing attack has just not been able to get going with Cam Akers in the backfield. Having said that, Diggs and Nico Collins are one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in the NFL, and Buffalo’s front sans Von Miller will have to get after CJ Stroud. If they can, Josh Allen has been playing well enough to take it to a good Houston defense. If not? Diggs very well may end up getting his revenge.
Under the Radar Banger: Jets vs. Vikings (Sunday 10/6, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network)
Normally I, as an American, am ashamed at the disgusting slop we send abroad for NFL games in Europe. This game should be gross, but in a fun and compelling way, as it’s a pair of elite defenses that have given opposing offenses headaches all year. Oh, and the guy who is in the middle of a career renaissance under center for the Vikings was a former Jet, while the signal caller for the Jets spent the first two decades of his career tormenting the Vikings. Should be fun!
Who Won The MVP Last Week: Jared Goff
I think a pretty good precedent to set is that if you go 18-for-18, throw for a few touchdowns, and catch another one against a good Seahawks defense, you win this. Jared Goff just happened to do all of that, and as such, he gets the Who Won The MVP Last Week for this column. Congratulations to Jared Goff on the honor.
Best Bet (2-2): Raiders at Broncos UNDER 36
Look, let’s not overthink this. Broncos games have come in under this number in three straight weeks. The Raiders aren’t going to have Davante Adams amid his trade request. Both of these offenses will need long, sustained drives to put touchdowns on the board and I don’t think they have the facilities for that. Give me the Under.