It’s easy to overreact to things in the NBA these days. There’s a lot of air time that needs to be filled and a lot of traffic that needs to be generated, so there is a major incentive to give people stuff to talk about all the time. Having said that: While some overreactions end up being true, there are plenty that end up looking silly in retrospect.
With every team playing one team and some teams playing a whole two games, we wanted to go through and look at some of the natural overreactions that we’ve seen as we are either 1/82nd or 1/41st of the way through this year. Some, we think, are real, others are not, and a bunch of others exist in a gray area.
The Celtics are a juggernaut, and Jayson Tatum is the MVP favorite
Boston hitting the ground running to start the season after running it back was hardly a surprise — their opener was a chance to make a statement against a reshaped division rival, their second game was against the Wizards — but boy, they’ve looked incredible so far. Jayson Tatum, in particular, looks excellent, as his jumper looks so much quicker and more natural. He’s not going to keep up his 55 percent shooting clip from three all season in all likelihood, but if the Celtics win a ton of games (they will) and he has his best season yet, he’ll be in MVP talks. The favorite? That might be a stretch, but he’ll deserve to be high on ballots.
VERDICT: Mostly real
Denver is in serious trouble
Denver’s roster right now is their four main guys (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon), a bunch of young dudes who need to get better, and then Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric. We saw some of the limitations of that roster construction in their loss to Oklahoma City in the opener, when they looked like the much slower team without a ton of shooting. Now, not everyone will be as good as the Thunder, Michael Malone is a good coach, and betting against Jokic is silly, so we won’t say they’re in serious trouble. But we’ll be dog-earing this one and keeping tabs on it.
VERDICT: Not real … for now
Anthony Davis has an MVP season loading
For years, the line out of L.A. has been that this is AD’s team, and that the best thing for everyone is for LeBron James to no longer be the most important player on the team. We’ve seen bits and pieces of this, but when the chips are down, LeBron frequently takes over because, well, he’s LeBron James. Davis, meanwhile, was outrageous in the team’s season-opening win over the Wolves, with 36 points, 16 rebounds, four assists, three blocks, and a steal. Betting on him to be an MVP candidate might be a bridge too far — he has to stay healthy and they have to go through him, not James, with games on the line — but our bet is that he’ll have his best season as a Laker yet.
VERDICT: Real-ish
A LaMelo Ball All-Star season is in the works
Ball has played in a total of 58 games over the last two seasons as the Hornets have seemed addicted to being irrelevant. The hope is, and has been, that a healthy Ball in the right system (and with the help of some ankle braces) will be able to get back to being an All-Star, and despite an injury to Brandon Miller, he was able to tear up the Rockets to the tun of 34 points, 11 assists, eight rebounds, a steal, a block, and two turnovers in 38 minutes of work. If he stays healthy, we’re willing to bet on the ultra-talented young guard to start looking like an All-Star again.
VERDICT: Real
Cam Thomas is going to average 36 points per game
I want this to be real. However, he is not going to do that, but Brooklyn is going to be terrible and Cam Thomas WILL shoot the basketball. His bad games are going to be wretched, but his good games are going to be a blast. Also: Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, and all the other high lottery picks next year should start to figure out the best way to get to the Barclays Center.
VERDICT: Not real
James Harden will put up big numbers on a team that loses a lot
The Clippers went into this season hoping that Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and a roster filled with experienced NBA players with to would be able to offset the loss of Paul George and compete for a playoff berth in the West. And then, Leonard’s injury issues flared up again, which meant this will be the Harden show until he’s back. He had 29 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists in the season opener against the Suns, but he also turned it over eight times and the Clippers lost at home in overtime. We’re not certain Harden can do it on a nightly basis again, and winning in the Western Conference is going to be really tough, but the Clippers should have a good defense and Ty Lue is a good coach.
VERDICT: More real than not
The Knicks might be in trouble
There was plenty of skepticism about the Knicks cashing in most of their trade chips for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, and that was before Bridges’ shot because A Thing. Of course, anyone going up against the Celtics is going to be in trouble, especially a team breaking in new players and figuring things out, but still, the way Boston got good look after good look from three wasn’t encouraging. Having said all of this, the Knicks have a ton of talent, Tom Thibodeau knows how to win games in the regular season, and, uh, not everyone is the Celtics. We think they’ll be ok.
VERDICT: Not real