The first winner for Best New Artist at the Grammy Awards was Bobby Darin in 1960. In his decades-long career, he had nine top-10 singles, only one of which was about splishing and splashing. The second winner in the category was legendary comedian Bob Newhart (who also, amusingly, won Album of the Year). Other honorees in the 1960s include Robert Goulet (remained popular throughout the rest of his life), José Feliciano (an icon with the rare Christmas song that’s hard to get sick of), and The Beatles (literally The Beatles).
There’s a common perception that winning Best New Artist is a death sentence for an artist / band. I’m not sure this has ever been true (see, again: The Beatles), but it certainly hasn’t been true recently. The last six winners of the welcome-to-the-big-leagues award: Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, Olivia Rodrigo, Samara Joy, and Victoria Monét. Those are some huge, critically and/or commercially successful artists (Joy was a niche pick, but since she won over Måneskin, it was the correct one).
In the 2010s, you have Zac Brown Band, Bon Iver, Sam Smith, and Meghan Trainor, which is the first and last time Bon Iver and Meghan Trainor will appear in the same sentence. Say what you will about the “All About That Bass” singer / walking Target commercial, she’s undeniably popular. Going further back to the 2000s, there’s Christina Aguilera, Alicia Keys, Carrie Underwood, Maroon 5, Amy Winehouse, and Adele. That’s a strong batting average, not always in terms of authorial admiration (Joanna Newsom was snubbed!), but it does debunk the idea that winning Best New Artist dooms an act to following immediate glory with falling off the face of the earth.
So, where does this idea of a Best New Artist curse come from? There’s a trio of possibilities, or more likely, a combination of all three.
-In 1976, Starland Vocal Band released “Afternoon Delight.” It was one of the year’s best-selling singles (it also inspired both a Ron Burgundy sing-along and a regrettable tattoo). But only five years later, the breezy group broke up. “[We] got two of the five Grammys [and] one was Best New Artist,” Starland Vocal Band member Taffy Nivert recalled on an episode of VH1’s nostalgia-bait 100 Greatest One-Hit Wonders special. “So that was basically the kiss of death and I feel sorry for everyone who’s gotten it since.”
-Only three artists have taken home The Big Four of Album Of The Year, Record Of The Year, Song Of The Year, and Best New Artist in the same year: Christopher Cross, Adele, and Billie Eilish. Adele and Eilish are doing just fine, but Cross was never able to replicate the instant success of “Sailing” and, released later that year, the Oscar winning “Arthur’s Theme (Best That You Can Do).” He only had one more top-10 hit, 1983’s “Think Of Laura.”
-Best New Artist is notorious for being the only Grammys category with a vacated award. In February 1990, Milli Vanilli won Best New Artist; nine months later, they returned the trophy following a lip-syncing scandal.
The Milli Vanilli scandal, in particular, put a dark cloud over Best New Artist, but you know who won the next year? Mariah Carey. There’s always been peaks and valleys; it’s just that the clunkers stand out more. The Grammys probably want a redo on picking Macklemore and Ryan Lewis over Kendrick Lamar (Macklemore sure would); Esperanza Spalding was a noble if confusing selection over Justin Bieber, Drake, and Florence and the Machine; and fun., who won over Frank Ocean, isn’t even Jack Antonoff’s most famous band. (Although giving him a Grammy proved wise in the long run.)
Here’s the dirty not-so-secret about the Grammys, and every awards show: sometimes they get it “right” (taste is subjective, blah blah blah), often times they get it “wrong.” A lot of stone-cold masterpieces have been named Best Album (Songs In The Key Of Life! Time Out Of Mind! Golden Hour!) but there’s been a lot of bewildering winners, too (River: The Joni Letters? Babel? The First Family?). But you never hear about a Best Album Curse. The curse label is attached to Best New Artist because society is fascinated by the suddenly famous — and, for some, seeing their downfall is equally captivating. It’s also the Grammys attempting to predict the future, rather than honor the present. And recently, with Dua, Megan, and Olivia, they’ve done a better job of avoiding the one-hit-wonders (“Walking In Memphis” still goes hard).
If Chappell Roan, who seems certain to win Best New Artist at the 2025 Grammys (nominations are announced next Friday, November 8), came around 20 years ago, maybe she would have something to worry about. Not anymore.