We have finally arrived at the last week of the NFL’s regular season, and despite the expansion of the playoffs to 14 teams, only two playoff spots are still up for grabs going into the last week of the season. This season has seen a pretty massive separation between the good teams and bad teams in the NFL, with very little in the way of a middle class scrapping for Wild Card spots.
Even with just two spots up for grabs — and only five teams in the mix for those spots — there is some seeding drama still to play out in the NFL’s regular season finale. Here, we’ll go through everything that is still not set in stone and look at the games that will determine who ends up where for Wild Card Weekend.
NFC South Champion
We’ll start with one of three divisions still waiting to be sorted out, and the only one that features two teams that will either win the division or miss the playoffs entirely. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) come in with a 1-game lead on the Atlanta Falcons (8-8), meaning they just need to beat the New Orleans Saints (or tie them) to punch their ticket to the playoffs as the NFC’s 4-seed. The Falcons, meanwhile, need to beat the Carolina Panthers and have the Bucs lose to get into the postseason. Both of those games will be in the 1:00 p.m. ET window.
NFC North Champion and NFC 1-seed
The best game of Sunday will feature the Detroit Lions (14-2) hosting the Minnesota Vikings (14-2) on NBC’s Sunday Night Football, where the winner will get the NFC’s top seed and a bye, while the loser will fall to the 5-seed and face the NFC South champ next week. What makes it even more intriguing is that the loser of this game will be a heavy favorite over either the Bucs or Falcons, and if they take care of business on the road there, we will get a rematch of this game in the Divisional Round. Both teams will want that bye and home field advantage, but it feels particularly important for a banged-up Lions team to get an week of rest.
AFC North Champion
The Baltimore Ravens (11-5) hold a one-game lead on the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) in the AFC North, meaning if they can beat the Cleveland Browns (or tie them) on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET, they will lock up the 3-seed in the AFC. If they were to lose, then the Steelers would be able to win the division if they can beat the Bengals on Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. ET. The 3-seed will play host to the Chargers on Wild Card Weekend, while the 5-seed will go on the road to Houston.
AFC 7-seed
There are still three teams alive for the final playoff spot in the AFC, as the Denver Broncos (9-7), Miami Dolphins (8-8), and Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) are all hoping to nab the 7-seed and a trip to Buffalo for the Wild Card. For Denver, the formula is simple, beat the Chiefs (playing mostly their backups) and they are in. If the Broncos lose, however, it opens the door for Miami and Cincinnati. If the Dolphins can beat the Jets and get a Denver loss, they would be in, while the Bengals need to beat the Steelers and get a Broncos loss and a Dolphins loss or tie. We will know by late Saturday night if the Bengals are still alive, while the Dolphins and Broncos will be playing at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.
NFC 6-seed
The Washington Commanders (11-5) and the Green Bay Packers (11-5) are currently tied in the standings, with Washington owning the tiebreaker. If the Commanders can beat the Cowboys, they’ll be the 6-seed, but if Dallas wins, Green Bay can jump into the 6-seed with a win over the Bears. The difference will be a visit to L.A. to face the Rams as the 6-seed or a trip to Philadelphia as the 7-seed. Both of those games will be played in the 1:00 p.m. ET window on Sunday.