The end of the 2024 NFL regular season is here, even if it technically arrives in 2025. As often, Week 18 is utterly brutal from a handicapping perspective, with a handful of meaningless games, a few more that might only mean something in very specific circumstances, and all kinds of overall uncertainty. In this space, we’ve had a (very) tough season, but Week 17 was mildly successful so perhaps that can kickstart things into the postseason.
Before we endeavor to actually find five angles to share for Week 18, let’s take overall stock.
- Week 17: 3-2
- 2024 Season: 33-50-2
Come get these winners.
Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers OVER 48 points — Widely Available
One of the only things that has treated us well this season is Overs in NFC South divisional matchups. Honestly, it’s counterintuitive to recent history in that divisional games usually tend to lean under … but not in the NFC South. This game (and the next one) does have implications for the playoffs in that Atlanta needs to win to stay alive, but the Panthers have been feisty on offense. We can get to 49.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints OVER 43.5 points — Widely Available
NFC South overs. Rinse. Repeat. It helps that I still don’t trust Tampa’s defense, and the Bucs can probably put up 30 here if we need them to do so.
Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5) over Denver Broncos — Widely Available
Yes, I’m aware that the Chiefs are going to rest players. Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing, for example, and that is why the line is where it is. However, NFL roster rules dictate that it’s functionally impossible to rest EVERYONE and this move went too far. Take us home, Carson Wentz.
Miami Dolphins (-1) over New York Jets — Widely Available
Against all odds, Miami is alive in the playoff hunt. Do I trust the Dolphins on the road? Absolutely not, but it helps that they are playing an untrustworthy opponent in the Jets.
Detroit Lions (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings — FanDuel, DraftKings
Like most of this column, I wouldn’t give this out in a normal week, but the options are limited. Detroit’s defensive situation definitely scares me at the moment, but I trust the Lions offense and what will certainly be a juiced-up crowd in Detroit. If nothing else, I’m looking forward to watching this one.