Alright, maybe the best way to approach this season is to simply fade the picks in this space? As always, it’s up to the reader.
At any rate, Week 7 was another mess for us and, quite honestly, it unfolded in on-brand fashion. There were punt return touchdowns, kick return touchdowns, untimely turnovers, and even bizarre roster decisions. The Browns inexplicably demoted Jameis Winston to their emergency quarterback before Week 7 and then Deshaun Watson got hurt and Winston couldn’t come in until Dorian Thompson-Robinson got hurt, which led to a one-point spread loss that could’ve broken differently. The Packers won by 2 while laying 2.5. The list goes on.
God bless Mike Tomlin as a home underdog, if nothing else.
Five more picks on the way, but first, a look at the carnage.
- Week 7: 1-4
- 2024 Season: 11-23-1
Come get these winners.
Los Angeles Rams (+3) over Minnesota Vikings – Widely Available
This is just a spot I have to take with the full 3 available in the market. The Rams are undervalued after a tough start, and Los Angeles is getting a little bit healthier with the projected return of Cooper Kupp. I also tend to favor home teams on the short week of Thursday night, and I’m probably a touch lower on Minnesota than the market is right now.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles – FanDuel/BetMGM
The Bengals are back to life after two straight wins, even as their offense floundered a bit. I’m generally a believer in Cincinnati to right the ship, and if they can pair this defensive uptick with a return to their early-season offensive form, there is a lot to like. I’m grabbing the 2.5 while it’s available and projecting this to close 3 in many places. Lay it.
Cleveland Browns (+9.5) over Baltimore Ravens – FanDuel
It gives me no pleasure to back the Browns again this week. However, I was impressed with Cleveland’s defense against Cincinnati, and Jameis Winston is a meaningful upgrade on either 2024 Deshaun Watson or Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Give me the candy.
Miami Dolphins (-3) over Arizona Cardinals – DraftKings/ESPNBet
With Tua back in the fold, I think this number should be bigger than 3. Of course there is uncertainty about how he’ll perform but, when Tua has been on the field, the gap between him and the backup quarterback brigade for the Dolphins has been sizable. This is also a small fade of Arizona after two wins in the last three weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders (+10) over Kansas City Chiefs – Widely Available
I don’t want to talk about it, but I simply must take the double-digit number on Las Vegas at home. The total is currently sitting at 41. The Chiefs haven’t exactly been explosive offensively. Kansas City should win, but we maintain our principles.