The halfway point of the 2020 NFL season (to the extent there is one in a 17-week schedule) is here. Through eight weeks, the league has been relatively kind in this space, including a winning performance in Week 8. Still, there is no time to rest, and the Week 9 slate is an intriguing one, with a few marquee matchups on the agenda.
Before we dive into the slate with five selections, let’s take a moment and reflect on the season-long progress.
- Week 8: 3-2
- 2020 Season: 22-17-1
Come get these winners.
Carolina Panthers (+10.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
This is a principle play in a lot of ways. The Panthers have been frisky this season and, even on the road, giving Carolina double-digits seems to be a bit aggressive. Part of that is the tax paid to the Chiefs for, well, being the Chiefs, but the public will coming rolling in on Kansas City. In fact, that sharp side is (quite) clearly going to be the double-digit underdog and, for good measure, Teddy Bridgewater is an obscene 31-11 against the spread (and even better than that as an underdog) as a starter in his career. Just take the candy.
New York Giants and Washington Football Team UNDER 43 points
I know 43 seems low, especially when viewed through the favorable offensive lens of 2020. With that said, these are two defense-first teams with offenses that I simply don’t trust. The fear, more than anything, would be some unfortunate turnovers that lead the way to short fields but, aside from that, there should be many, many punts. Washington is a top-five team in both total defense (on a yardage basis) and defensive DVOA, and the Giants were legitimately good on defense against Tampa Bay. Hold your nose and take the fundamental side.
Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans UNDER 47.5 points
The Bears are breathtakingly bad on offense. Truly, they are. On the bright side (for us), Chicago is pretty stout on defense, and the Titans haven’t been quite as explosive on offense in recent weeks. We’re potentially in trouble if the Bears get to 21, but I don’t think they will. Even if they do, there’s a chance Chicago can slow Tennessee just enough to get us to the window.
Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings UNDER 52.5 points
Minnesota took the air out of the ball last week against Green Bay, and we’re betting they can do it again. The Lions do have a talented offense, but with availability questions, Detroit certainly isn’t a lock to light up the Vikings, even when they have the ball. Dalvin Cook probably won’t dominate the proceedings as much as he did against the Packers, but Minnesota is content to churn clock and this number is a touch high.
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over Miami Dolphins
We benefitted from Miami’s win last week, so this certainly isn’t a complaint. However, the Dolphins/Rams box score was comically one-sided in favor of Los Angeles, and it took quite a confluence of events (er, turnovers) to get Miami the outright win. In general, I do think the Dolphins have been undervalued this season, and we’ve been on them a lot as a result. Still, the Cardinals should probably be favored by 6-7 points, so we’ll lay the 4.5 on the home team.