On Nov. 18, NBA teams will be tasked with deciphering the future value of dozens of prospects. Interesting decisions will be made, starting with the Minnesota Timberwolves at No. 1 overall, and the 2020 NBA Draft also brings the benefit (or perhaps the curse?) of several months of extra evaluation time.
At this stage, everyone is sick of projecting this group of players but, at the same time, estimating downside and upside for players is all part of the job of an NBA front office. To that end, we will be glancing at the realistic floor and ceiling of 14 prospects in this space, accounting for what they can currently bring, examining their tools, and looking ahead with an eye toward what low-end and high-end outcomes might look like.
Every caveat applies because, well, it is very difficult to project what 19-22-year-old prospects might look like in a few years, but that’s the name of the game. Here is a look at those 14 players.
LaMelo Ball
Floor: This is a controversial topic. Detractors would point to big-time bust potential for Ball but, quite honestly, it is hard to see him fully imploding given his size, basketball IQ, and passing ability. If the jump shot doesn’t come around and he doesn’t get a hold of his shot selection, though, it could be tough for Ball to be a primary creator against NBA-level competition. Defensively, he is currently pretty bad and, if that doesn’t improve and the offense stagnates, you’re looking at a third guard, rather than a star.
Ceiling: It might be a bit aggressive in terms of realistic ceiling, but Ball could become one of the ten-best players in the league. Now, that requires him to improve as a shooter, both in accuracy and shot selection, as well as rising to a solid-or-better defensive level. The combination of those factors may not be very likely but, if they all come together alongside his preternatural passing, ball-handling, and vision for his size, the sky is truly the limit for Ball. That’s why he is the No. 1 prospect for many evaluating this class.
Anthony Edwards
Floor: The terrifying comparisons are out there, including Dion Waiters and Andrew Wiggins. It is hard to see Edwards being out of the league given his package of physical traits and skills, but the red flags are also real. If his iffy defense from college continues, his tools can’t save him in the NBA. If his decision-making and feel don’t improve on offense, he’ll settle into a role as a player that needs the ball to thrive but isn’t good enough to actually demand that kind of lead guard usage.
Ceiling: Edwards is the most physically gifted perimeter player in the class, and his ceiling is basically what he put on film against Michigan State last season. If his perimeter shooting stabilizes, Edwards can at least bank on being an impressive scorer and, if the light bulb comes on to indicate Edwards will repeatedly attack the basket, his ceiling rises. The tools, on both ends, are as such where Edwards could be a multi-time All-Star if it all comes together.
James Wiseman
Floor: Wiseman is sometimes viewed as a risky prospect, simply because of his weird path to the NBA that included only three college games. However, the floor is pretty high here. Simply put, players with Wiseman’s measurements (7’1 with a 7’6 wingspan, etc.) don’t bust very often, especially when they can move the way he does. It is certainly possible that his offensive game never materializes beyond a rim-running threat and, defensively, there is a path to him merely being okay, rather than dominant. It’s tough to see him not being a contributor at the NBA level, though, which is a point in his favor.
Ceiling: If Wiseman’s floor is underrated, his ceiling may be a touch overrated. Part of that is dictated by the way the modern NBA game is played, with 7-footers needing to be elite on one end of the floor to achieve superstardom. Wiseman may not do that on offense, and it’s hard to see him being a completely dominant force there. With that said, his defensive tools are as such where he could be 90 percent of Rudy Gobert, and that is a terrifying proposition when combined with his potential offensive skill package.
Killian Hayes
Floor: If the shooting doesn’t work, Hayes is going to have a hard time. Hayes is a limited athlete in terms of explosiveness, and he struggles to finish with his right hand. Defensively, he is very sound, but it’s at least possible that he stalls out as an average player on that end, rather than a game-changer. If the worst-case scenario arrives on both ends, he is probably still an NBA contributor, but certainly not a player that will return top-five value.
Ceiling: The attention will be paid to Hayes’ offense, simply because that is the appeal of a lead guard prospect near the top of the draft. Hayes has flashed off-dribble shooting and, if that materializes, he can be a strongly above-average lead shot creator at the NBA level. He’s also one of the best passers in the draft, making him a potential top-10 point guard in the league when you throw in the fact that he has great positional size (6’5) and defensive instincts.
Onyeka Okongwu
Floor: For better or worse, Okongwu is still only 6’9 and he’s primarily a center in the modern NBA. There is always a chance that bites him, particularly if he doesn’t develop a perimeter game on offense. To be clear, Okongwu probably has one of the highest floors in the draft, but his bottom-tier outcomes probably land him as a backup big man, rather than a high-end starter.
Ceiling: The comparisons to Bam Adebayo are unfair to Okongwu, simply because Adebayo is an outlier athlete that is also a ridiculous passer and creator for a modern-day center. Still, it is possible that Okongwu can replicate Adebayo’s rim-running ability, and Okongwu does project as potentially an impressive scorer and finisher, both as a roll man and in 1-on-1 situations. Defensively, he profiles as a potentially elite player, with the ability to hold up against traditional lineups and excel when the game gets small. He won’t be a full-blown offensive star even at this 100th percentile outcome but, if he hits his defensive ceiling, he’s a perennial All-Star.
Isaac Okoro
Floor: Comparisons to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist illustrate what happens if things go wrong for Okoro. To be fair, Kidd-Gilchrist was a functional rotation player before battling injuries, but Okoro’s offensive game could become a big problem if he can’t fix his jump shot. Defensively, he’s going to be a positive in almost any circumstance, but there is a slight risk for a player that could become a non-shooter and hurt his team’s offense as a result.
Ceiling: At his peak, Okoro could be one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, with the strength to hold up against any non-center and the quickness and anticipating to overwhelm smaller guards. That is a valuable piece on its own, but Okoro also has a chance to be a plus offensive player. He attacks the rim with reckless abandon, gets to the free throw line well, and feels the game well as a secondary creator and ball mover. Realistically, he probably won’t be an offensive star without a full overhaul of his jump shot, but he can bring star-level impact with his defense and all-court game.
Deni Avdija
Floor: Avdija is among the players with the highest floors in the class. It is hard to imagine him not being an NBA player. Still, the concern would be that he doesn’t do anything at a particularly impressive level on either end of the floor, and that archetype can get lost in the shuffle. That is particularly alarming if Avdija’s perimeter shooting looks more like his (ugly) free throw shooting, and Avdija could become a negative offensive player in a hurry if he can’t stretch opposing defenses.
Ceiling: Going back to the shooting, Avdija’s ceiling requires him to develop into a plus shooter. That may not be exceedingly likely, but it’s at least possible for a player well-renowned for his work ethic. If that comes together, Avdija can leverage his jump shot into opportunities as a secondary creator, and he is a tremendous transition player and cutter offensively. He won’t be a lock-down defender, but Avdija’s size (6’9) is helpful, and he could be a plus on that end with his positioning, ability to switch and overall feel. Any comparison that puts Avdija in the same ballpark as Luka Doncic is wildly unfair to the former, but at his best, he’s going to be a really good basketball player.
Obi Toppin
Floor: Nobody is particularly worried about Toppin’s offensive arsenal, with the caveat that he did his best work as an older prospect in a non-power conference. The real concern is that Toppin could be unplayable defensively. There is still a place in the NBA for an all-offense big man that can put up numbers, but Toppin could be a very difficult team-building fit if his defense doesn’t improve. It is tough for a 6’9 combo big to function if he can’t guard on the perimeter, and Toppin’s lack of hip flexibility and lateral movement could prove challenging to the point where he needs to be relegated to second-unit scoring.
Ceiling: If Toppin’s defense is even passable, he could put up star-level production and efficiency. Toppin was the National Player of the Year in college while filling the stat sheet, and he’s an incredibly impressive finisher. He won’t be an all-world defender even in a ceiling scenario, but he can make up for that with the ability to put pressure on the opposition, including the chance that he develops into a perimeter weapon with his already established passing and burgeoning jump shot.
Tyrese Haliburton
Floor: Much like Avdija, floor isn’t the biggest concern with Haliburton. There is the danger that he could be “just a guy,” however, as he struggles to beat opponents off the dribble and finish in the paint offensively. On the defensive end, Haliburton is so smart that he will be able to function, but he’s not particularly strong or athletic, leaving some to theorize that he could be picked as an on-ball defender in the NBA. If both sides go sideways, he’s a reserve guard rather than a high-end contributor.
Ceiling: At this best, Haliburton could be a strong secondary creator that could play alongside a star or run the second unit offense as a primary initiator. His shooting numbers were great in college and, if he can translate that, there is huge value in 40 percent three-point shooting with deep range, especially when associated with an impressive array of passing skills. Defensively, Haliburton is plenty big enough to defend both guard spots, with the projection to act as a defensive playmaker in passing lanes. Even at his ceiling, Haliburton isn’t a traditional star, but he could be the kind of elite role player that any team would want.
Devin Vassell
Floor: Vassell is a lottery pick in part because his floor seems to be high. However, a video emerged that poured cold water on his shooting and, if his stroke evades him, Vassell doesn’t have that much to buoy his offensive profile. Defensively, it is hard to see him being bad, but perhaps Vassell is too thin to make a huge impact on the ball and his off-ball wizardry is muted as a result. He’s another prospect that, barring a complete loss of his shot, seems safe to be an NBA player, but it could be an anonymous career if things don’t go as planned.
Ceiling: Vassell’s off-ball defense has drawn comparisons to Andre Iguodala and, quite honestly, that isn’t even that much of a stretch. Of course, comparing anyone to a fringe Hall of Fame candidate is unwise, but Vassell could truly be a special off-ball defender that is also a positive in one-on-one situations. If that combines with 40 percent three-point shooting and the ability to knock down some shots off the bounce in the way he did at Florida State, Vassell is the “3-and-D” dream that teams are always looking for in the modern game.
Tyrese Maxey
Floor: Maybe Maxey’s 29 percent three-point shooting from college is real. If that turns out to be the case, he could find himself scrambling at the NBA level, because Maxey (at 6’3) needs his perimeter shooting to be a threat to open up the rest of his game. He does other things well, from secondary creation to defense, but there aren’t too many 6’3 combo guards that can’t hit threes that are high-end NBA players.
Ceiling: Maxey’s pre-college shooting sample was much, much better than what he put on film at Kentucky. If one believes that Maxey can be a plus shooter, or even an average one, the rest of his game opens up. He can get his own shot, create for others, and find the weaknesses in the defense with a dynamic in-between game. Defensively, he can defend point guards at a high level with enough strength and physicality to also defend twos. Also, he has the Kentucky conundrum on his side, with recent breakouts from Bam Adebayo, Devin Booker, and Tyler Herro to maybe place the emphasis back on where he was as a high school standout.
Patrick Williams
Floor: Williams is an offensive project, averaging only 9.2 points per game on modest efficiency at Florida State. He put together some real flashes but, at the same time, it is quite possible he just doesn’t have high-end appeal on that end of the floor. If that happens, Williams will be reliant on defense to make his way into the NBA and, while that can earn you a living for a long time, it won’t bring starter equity.
Ceiling: At 6’8 with a 7’0 wingspan and a chiseled physique, Williams could be a terrifying defensive player. He has great feel, particularly as a weak-side rim protector, and could be a linchpin of a successful defense if the pieces break right. On offense, he has the tools that teams like and, as a result, he’s fast-rising on boards. His ceiling may not be superstardom, but Williams is the kind of gifted prospect that could put it all together and be scary on both ends.
Aaron Nesmith
Floor: As a freshman at Vanderbilt, Nesmith connected on just 59 of his 175 shots (33.7 percent) from three-point range. He blew that away with his stellar sophomore campaign but, for a player that is almost entirely reliant on his floor-spacing to be a lottery pick, Nesmith absolutely has to be a plus shooter. If, for some reason, that doesn’t happen, he’s probably in trouble when it comes to being anything but a bench player.
Ceiling: Shooting is exceedingly valuable, and Nesmith connected on a ridiculous 52.2 percent of his threes last season. Granted, that sample was pretty small due to an injury, but Nesmith projects as a potentially elite shooting prospect. If that happens (and he has been compared to Duncan Robinson in that event), Nesmith can easily bring value, and he has the physical frame and tools at 6’6 with some bulk to be an average-or-better defensive player on the wing. It’s hard to see him being a dynamic on-ball force offensively, but he won’t need to be if he’s the kind of 3-and-D player that his sophomore shooting foreshadows.
Kira Lewis
Floor: Outside of physical speed, it could be reasonable to suggest that Lewis doesn’t have any elite traits. That can be precarious for a prospect, and Lewis isn’t a special shooter or passer as a lead guard. That doesn’t necessarily spell doom, but if you are just “okay” on both ends at his position, you’re probably a career backup without much appeal.
Ceiling: Lewis doesn’t have the primary scoring and passing upside of the guys at the top of the Draft, but could he be an above-average starting point guard? I think that is very much in play given what he’s put on film and, for a player widely projected in the back half of the lottery (or later) in a shaky draft, that would be quite a win.