While the loss of the 2020 NCAA Tournament wasn’t No. 1 on the list of travesties over the last 12 months, it was excruciating for both die-hard college basketball observers and casual fans that regularly engage with March Madness. As such, there is pent-up demand for the majesty that is the tournament and, in particular, the frenzy that accompanies the first weekend of action.
Some of that energy will be assigned to bracket pools or simple basketball enjoyment. Others will have vested interests in the game-by-game action, though, with the ability to wager on each and every contest from midday until the dead of night.
This space will be dedicated to those will be tracking every single dribble through the handicapping lens, with some futures, leans and genuine plays to unleash in the coming days. Before unveiling our selections, a reminder is probably in order that, well, you don’t have to handicap and/or wager on all 48 games in the first four days. It’s okay to pass a few times.
Anyway, here is our smattering of options as we spray the board with delight.
All odds via DraftKings, though line shopping is encouraged.
Futures/Props
- Big Ten OVER 5.5 teams to the Round of 32 (excluding NJ teams, i.e. Rutgers) — The Big Ten enters with four teams (Michigan, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio State) that are pretty large favorites as top-two seeds. From there, you need two more teams to win their openers to get home for this bet. Purdue is the biggest remaining favorite as a 4-seed and, if they can hold serve, you only need one more. Wisconsin is a coin flip against North Carolina, and I might even lean to the Badgers. We can’t use Rutgers (New Jersey!), but Michigan State has a tangible chance to win both its First Four matchup and its next game to advance. Finally, Maryland is a small dog, but certainly is in a winnable spot. I think the right side is on the Over, and seven teams isn’t out of the question.
- Will a No. 13 seed win a game in the Round of 64? NO (+145) — I wouldn’t like this at even money, but we’re getting some positive juice. I like this crop of No. 4 seeds, almost more than the No. 3 group. Oklahoma State has arguably the best player in the tournament in Cade Cunningham. Virginia is Virginia. Florida State may be under-seeded, and I think Purdue holds serve.
- USC to make Sweet 16 (+150) — KenPom has USC at 41.0 percent to make the second weekend. If that number is accurate, this is great value, and I buy it. USC’s first round matchup is pretty soft against either Drake or Wichita State, and they’re likely to play a short-handed Kansas team in round two. I wouldn’t bet this at even money, and value matters, but this is a good price.
- Houston to make the Elite 8 (-134) — I think Houston is being underrated because they aren’t from a major conference. I’m not a buyer of Rutgers or Clemson in round two and, while West Virginia and San Diego State are both fully capable of toppling Houston, the Cougars are No. 6 in KenPom and will a solid favorite over either opponent. Give me Kelvin Sampson’s team.
- Gonzaga to win the title (+205) — Yes, this is as square as square gets. I also think this is a good price. At +205, the Zags have implied odds of 32.79% to win the title. That might seem high, but I’d put it closer to 40 percent. They are very, very good, and their draw to the Final Four is soft enough to make this even more appealing.
Five leans
- Grand Canyon (+15) over Iowa — Grand Canyon isn’t great on offense, and that’s the concern here. Iowa is going to score. They score on everyone. This is still a lot of points for the Hawkeyes to be laying against a pretty competent No. 15 seed, and Iowa also might pedal off late.
- Abilene Christian (+9.5) over Texas — Texas should win this game, and I’m not saying otherwise. I think this line is a touch high, though, in part because Abilene Christian is a legitimately good defensive team. The Wildcats lead the country in turnover creation, with a top-15 mark in effective field goal percentage allowed, and this is a substantial number for the Longhorns to cover.
- Oral Roberts (+15.5) over Ohio State — Oral Roberts can, and will, get buckets. This isn’t going to be a fun sweat because Oral Roberts also can’t get stops. However, a deeper look at Ohio State’s profile is enough to send me to the other side, even against a one-sided opponent.
- Wisconsin (+1.5) over North Carolina — Has anyone picked against North Carolina here? Let me be the first. Wisconsin isn’t a lot of fun to watch, and this game is a serious stylistic clash, but the Badgers will take care of the ball, maximize possessions and make things difficult on the Heels.
- Colorado (-5) over Georgetown — The Hoyas are an awesome story led by Patrick Ewing, and they are VERY trendy here. I’ll just remind you that Georgetown was quite mediocre this season, and Colorado is a darling of analytical models. This is a pretty small number.
Five plays
- Drake (PK) over Wichita State — Drake hasn’t been fantastic lately, and Wichita State is the bigger name brand. This line is off as a result. Drake also has one of its best players returning in Shanquan Hemphill, and the Bulldogs should be favored. This isn’t as juicy as it was earlier in the week when +2 was available, but it’s still the right side.
- Tennessee (-7.5) over Oregon State — I don’t like to bet favorites. I’ll admit that. Tennessee is the side in this game. The Vols have been pretty disappointing and Oregon State is “hot” after winning the Pac-12. This number should be 10, and Tennessee has considerably more talent all over the floor.
- Villanova (-6) over Winthrop — I promise. I don’t like favorites. This is another “line too low” spot, and it is because of how Villanova has fared without Collin Gillespie. That is certainly a concern, but Villanova is 10 or 11-point favorite in terms of a raw power rating, and Winthrop is exceptionally trendy. This is a rare public underdog, and I’ll take the other side.
- St. Bonaventure (+1.5) over LSU — Everyone saw LSU take Alabama to the final buzzer in the SEC title game. Everyone also knows that LSU is the more talented team, with a bunch of high-major recruits. The Bonnies are the better team statistically, though, and it also appeals to me that no one in the world is on them. This one’s for Woj and Tim Bontemps.
- UC Santa Barbara (+7) over Creighton — Most of the analysis of this game, at least on the side that we’re on, is focused on fading Creighton. That doesn’t hurt, but UCSB is 18-1 in the last 19 games. This is a good, balanced basketball team, and this line should probably be about 4.5 or 5.