For the second straight year, the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat will meet in the NBA Playoffs, this time in a first round series that figures to be among the most anticipated of the opening slate.
Last year, Miami took down the Bucks in five games after running out to a 3-0 series lead. The games were almost all close, just one was decided by more than nine points, but as Miami did to opponents throughout the Bubble playoffs, they created a number of problems for the Bucks offense and were able to pick apart their defense to the point that people began questioning whether Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to be trying to guard Jimmy Butler.
This year, the two teams feature a lot of familiar faces but do have some key differences to the teams that met a year ago. The Heat, like last year in the Bubble, are peaking at the right time, going 7-2 in May and finding their form with a fully healthy squad as they locked up the 6-seed in the East. The Bucks, meanwhile, weren’t the regular season juggernaut that they’ve been the past two years, but added Jrue Holiday as their third star, in large part to make up for their playoff shortcomings.
How will this year’s series go? Well, there are a few things that will decide if Miami can pull off the upset in back-to-back years, or if Milwaukee will finally show its teeth in the postseason.
Matchup To Watch
The focal point of this series will, once again, be on Giannis Antetokounmpo going up against Bam Adebayo, who is as uniquely qualified as any defender in the NBA to create problems for the two-time MVP. We saw last year how Adebayo’s combination of size, length, and quickness allows him to matchup about as one can with Giannis. The difference this year is that Giannis seems to have, once again, taken a step forward as an offensive player thanks to a shift in offensive philosophy in Milwaukee.
You can read in depth (and watch videos) all about that change here, but the basic gist is they are getting him the ball in a variety of places and running action with him in a number of ways that take advantage of the typical defensive deployments against him, namely how teams sag off of him. Adebayo is as well-equipped to press up higher on Giannis than most bigs and help contain some of the new dribble hand-off actions the Bucks run this year, but it will present some new challenges for the Heat defense as a whole and Bam in particular.
While Adebayo gets significant credit, it really is a team effort to slow Giannis down, forming the wall in transition to keep him from getting into the paint and sending timely help when able. Giannis’ apparent newfound patience has helped he and the Bucks exploit those doubles more this season, and he’s added more counters to his game to allow him to score even better at and near the rim. Still, this is a Heat team that is a nightmare to deal with defensively, headlined by Adebayo and Butler, who hound opponents and make life miserable.
This year, much more than last, the Bucks are reliant on an elite offense to carry them to wins. Whether they can impose their will and do that to beat the Heat, who would much prefer a slugfest like a year ago, will be heavily determined by Giannis outplaying Adebayo this time around.
Series X-Factor
I had a really hard time picking just one here, but I’m going to go with Holiday. He’s the biggest new face in this matchup and the Bucks brought him in precisely for this moment. Holiday is the guy that’s supposed to bring them what Eric Bledsoe and George Hill couldn’t, which is consistent, All-Star caliber contributions in the postseason.
Last year, Bledsoe’s playoff woes reared their ugly head once again as he shot just 33.3 percent from the field and 21.4 percent from three against Miami, getting thoroughly outplayed by Goran Dragic. This time around, Holiday is expected to get the better of that matchup and that will be vital for Milwaukee, as he provides another outlet beyond Khris Middleton for the Bucks to run some offense through when teams load up on Giannis.
On the other end of the floor, Holiday gives Milwaukee a lot more versatility defensively for switching and attacking opposing guards and wings, and one would anticipate he’ll see the Jimmy Butler assignment for much of the series, particularly in the fourth quarter.
Stat To Know
The question the Bucks have faced for the past three years is what will they do to adjust when an opponent starts knocking down threes. The answer has often been nothing, and the result has been getting bounced unceremoniously. Last year the Heat had a 60.5 true shooting percentage in the series, including a 37.5 percent mark from three-point range as a team. Whether they can replicate that type of shooting performance without the likes of Kelly Olynyk and Jae Crowder, who each shot over 43 percent from deep against Milwaukee with Crowder going a ridiculous 22-for-51 in the series, may just be the biggest question of them all. Milwaukee, meanwhile, shot just 32.7 percent from distance on the series and that difference proved pivotal in the series.
It is the truth of basketball today that winning is so often tied to hitting threes, and only the Charlotte Hornets allowed more three-point attempts per game than the Heat (39.1) and the Bucks (38.6). They are two teams that pride themselves on being excellent defensive squads, particularly at the rim, and each of their top stars are at their best going downhill. As such the defensive priority from both is going to remain taking away the paint and to force guys to hit shots from deep. Last year, the Heat did that to an extraordinary degree that the Bucks couldn’t keep up with. This year, we’ll see if Milwaukee can crack the code of this Miami defense, which is in the most simple terms, to hit the threes they give you.