The Toronto Raptors endured a season from hell in 2020-21. While every team in the NBA navigated a challenging environment filled with COVID protocols and uncertainty, the Raptors were forced to play the entire campaign in Tampa, living in a hotel and generally just counting the down until the season finished. It is tempting to throw out the results, but the Raptors are in for changes without Kyle Lowry and they are projected for a middling result if one believes over/under projections. If nothing else, Toronto’s next steps will be quite interesting, and the roster still has interesting talent.
Roster:
Precious Achiuwa
OG Anunoby
Dalano Banton
Scottie Barnes
Khem Birch
Isaac Bonga
Chris Boucher
Justin Champagnie
Sam Dekker
Goran Dragic
Malachi Flynn
Freddie Gillespie
David Johnson
Svi Mykhailiuk
Reggie Perry
Pascal Siakam
Gary Trent Jr.
Fred VanVleet
Ishmail Wainright
Yuta Watanabe
Projected Vegas Win Total: 35.5 wins
Biggest Addition: Scottie Barnes
There is an argument to be made for Goran Dragic, who is the best player that the Raptors added for the 2021-22 season specifically. Barnes is clearly the top addition through a future-facing lens, though, as he is a top-five pick with tremendous two-way potential. Barnes is somewhat duplicative with Toronto’s current core pieces, but the front office clearly looked to the future with his selection. At the very least, it would be encouraging to see flashes from Barnes, and his biggest question (perimeter shooting) is something to monitor during his rookie campaign.
Biggest Loss: Kyle Lowry
Since 2012, Kyle Lowry has been a fixture for the Raptors. He is the most accomplished player in franchise history, an NBA champion, and a valuable player in the present, even at the age of 35. It will be strange to see Lowry elsewhere as a result, and the Raptors certainly will take a hit in terms of defense and shooting in his absence. Toronto did add an intriguing offensive creator in Dragic, but the Raptors likely got worse with Lowry out the door.
Biggest Question: Which direction does Toronto pick?
Masai Ujiri does not project as a lead decision maker that is in favor of keeping his team in the middle of the pack. Last season was a perfect example, as the Raptors pulled the rip cord and angled toward the lottery, rather than attempting to compete for the play-in amid odd circumstances. With that in mind, Toronto isn’t currently set up to seriously contend in the East, and they don’t have a top-15 player to build around for the future. The Raptors do have a lot of talent, headlined by Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, and Barnes, but Toronto picking a direction in terms of a rebuild or a push toward the present would do a lit to illuminate expectations.
What Makes This Season A Success
If the Raptors are trying to win, they have playoff-caliber talent. If they aren’t, setting up for another lottery pick would be a useful idea. Toronto’s overall direction (see above) is of great intrigue, but the team’s overall forecast also informs what would constitute a success in the short term.
What Makes This Season A Failure
Wouldn’t it be a little bit strange if the Raptors just… kept going on this strange track? They are seemingly straddling the line between a rebuild and a push toward competition for now, but they also clearly wanted no part of the play-in last season. Beyond the overall viewpoint, struggles from Barnes or injury-related issues for Siakam would be unfortunate.