The regular season is over in the NFL and the always interesting playoff slate is here. Despite scheduling challenges and the absence of two high-profile teams (Chiefs, Eagles) from the slate, the matchups are quite intriguing, and there are six games on the horizon over a three-day period. For those unfamiliar with this space, we endeavor to find value on the NFL betting card each week, with a strong close to the season and general principles to uphold.
Before we get into the Wild Card Weekend card, let’s take stock of the season to this point.
- Week 18: 2-1
- 2022 Season: 48-38-2
Come get these winners.
Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers UNDER 42 points
I’m not over the moon about the Brock Purdy-led Niners offense, and I really don’t think Seattle can score in this matchup. At the current spread number, I don’t like other side, but provided you can grab the 42, the Under is a side I like.
TEASER: Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) over Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Our teaser of the week is here once again, and it’s a pair of underdogs through key numbers. I lean to both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay at their current spread prices, and these teaser legs are juicy given relatively modest totals. Let’s get these home.
Buffalo Bills (-7) over Miami Dolphins in the first half
This gets more difficult to recommend above seven, but there are multiple books dealing seven at the time of this post. It’s a little bit square for sure, but Miami’s underlying metrics are horrible without Tua on the field. Buffalo hasn’t been its peak self for a while, but the Bills should come out flying in this one.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) over New York Giants
Backing the Vikings in the playoffs after all of their (relative) fraudulence this season seems wild, but the matchup is the matchup. Minnesota isn’t as good as the team’s win-loss record indicates, but New York wasn’t exactly a juggernaut this season either. The Giants also finished with a negative point differential and, while I trust Brian Daboll quite a bit, this number is short. At three, there is only one side.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys UNDER 45.5 points
If the Bucs actually played optimally and let Brady throw 50 times, this probably wouldn’t be the best side. But they don’t usually do that, I trust both defenses to a solid degree. This one feels like a slugfest and, in case you were wondering, this also fits snugly with the above teaser and the underdog. Let’s have some fun on Monday night.