The NFL Draft is right around the corner. On Thursday night, one of the NFL’s most hectic weekends of the year will kick off, as the league will descend upon Kansas City and unveil the 31 players who will get taken in the first round in 2023. From there, it’s a marathon over the next two days, culminating with someone being named Mr. Irrelevant on Saturday evening when the final pick’s name gets read.
While we’re not going to do an entire monster, 7-round mock draft, we decided to sit down and run through the first round and make some picks. Our two rules:
1. We are not allowed to make any trades.
2. The picks are made based off of a mix of watching college football and what our guts believe will happen. We have no inside information on this one, but we can certainly hit you with earth-shattering insight like “Bijan Robinson is good.”
Anyway, here we go. Robby Kalland grabbed the odd picks, while Bill DiFilippo took the even ones.
1. Carolina Panthers (via Chicago Bears): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Young has been the prohibitive favorite to go first for the past week, and I expect the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner to be who the Panthers select to start Thursday night. He was wildly productive at Alabama and I think a year with a shakier than usual offensive line in front of him last year only helped his stock, as he showed that even with his shorter stature, he can make plays, evade the rush, and make throws in traffic. The height question is real, but the traits, IQ, and production are not. For a team that’s been desperate for a franchise QB since Cam Newton’s first departure, Young makes all the sense in the world.
2. Houston Texans: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
The Texans could go in a number of different directions. No one would fault them if they picked a QB, and if they wanted to trade back to a QB-hungry team, they can get a king’s ransom to address their myriad needs on their roster. But since we’re not projecting trades, let’s go with Anderson, the top defensive player in the class from new head coach DeMeco Ryans’ alma mater. Anderson is going to get after quarterbacks, plays the run well, and is the sort of culture setter the new regime in Houston would love.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
I think this is where we see the first trade of draft night, as Kyler Murray has apparently stumped for Paris Johnson, who would be a significant reach at 3 but would be more palatable at 7 or 11 (if he were to be there). Arizona will have lots of calls, and in this scenario with Anderson off the board, I think they’d prefer to make the move backwards. That said, Tyree Wilson is far from a reach at three, as he has prototypical size (6’6, 271 with 35.5 inch arms) for a modern edge rusher and makes life miserable for opposing tackles. Arizona needs a boost to their pass rush and Wilson, if they don’t choose to move back, fits the bill.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Richardson has the highest ceiling about signal callers in this class, and after new head coach Shane Steichen built Philadelphia’s offense around a mobile QB who needed to grow into being a consistent passer in Jalen Hurts, it’s reasonable to believe he has a good blueprint for how to develop Richardson. Plus for a franchise as starved for a franchise QB as Indianapolis, taking a big swing makes a ton of sense. What’s the worst that’s going to happen, they end up needing to rely on a bunch of past their prime veterans and Day 3 guys if he doesn’t work out?
5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
This is a very popular mock draft marriage, and I’m not going to be the one to argue it. Carter is a freak and while the misdemeanor reckless driving charge and subsequent lackluster pro day performance have knocked him down boards, I don’t see him getting past Seattle at 5 unless there’s a crazy run at the top where four QBs go in a row. Carter’s tape at Georgia is hysterical to watch, as he just throws around offensive linemen, running backs, and quarterbacks, wrecking shop constantly over the past couple years. Seattle could use that presence in the middle of their line, and Pete Carroll would be very happy to add the big fella to his front.
6. Detroit Lions (via L.A. Rams): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Jared Goff was pretty good last year, so Detroit taking a QB doesn’t make much sense to me. Instead, they land the nastiest cornerback in the draft with the hopes of helping out one of the NFL’s most porous passing defenses. Witherspoon is unbelievable in man coverage and tackles like the ball-carrier owes him money — Dan Campbell would have a blast having someone with his edge on the defense. With Jeff Okudah being traded to Atlanta, Detroit has a need and figures to have their pick of the top corners in this draft at No. 6.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Vegas is among the candidates to trade up for a QB, so they’d be thrilled with this scenario of Stroud falling to them. Stroud’s stock is a bit all over the place, but I’m a believer in what he can do. He gets knocked for the talent around him and I think there are genuine questions for him to answer about making plays when things break down. That said, he’s insanely accurate as a passer, has excellent size, and he saved his best tape for the biggest game of the season, slicing up the Georgia defense in the CFP semifinal. That tape showed what he can be, and I think with the right investment in his development, he could be an excellent NFL starter.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
A Savannah native who won back-to-back national titles in Athens (although he picked up a season-ending injury halfway through 2022), Smith stays in the Peach State and helps the Falcons fill a position of need. His 4.39-second 40 would bring a much-needed jolt of speed to Atlanta’s defense, his motor and work-ethic will be beloved by fans and coaches, and while he needs a little polish, his ceiling as a game-changing pass rusher is high.
9. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
The Bears top priority should be protecting Justin Fields, and as such the expectation is that they will be one of the first teams selecting an offensive tackle in this draft. That’s a good place to be, as there’s a number of talented tackles in this year’s draft, but I’d expect them to pair Fields with another former Buckeye in Johnson. There are questions about what position Peter Skoronski is best suited for, with some believing his highest ceiling is inside at guard. As such, I think Chicago goes with Johnson, who has ideal tackle size and is an excellent pass protector who could keep Fields much cleaner than he has been in his first two seasons.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Eagles could use this to go Best Player Available and snag Bijan Robinson to pair with Jalen Hurts in the backfield. Instead, the team takes a monster cornerback prospect in Gonzalez, who has the potential to be one of the best in the NFL. He needs to keep growing as a tackler, but he shows his track-and-field background with his speed and fluidity at 6’1. Let him walk into a room with two excellent corners in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, bring him along, and sooner rather than later, Philly will have an elite player at the position.
11. Tennessee Titans: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Titans would have to think long and hard about Will Levis here, as Ryan Tannehill is going to be a free agent next year and Malik Willis didn’t impress much in his rookie year. That said, playmaker is a bigger concern for me in the immediate and I think they’ll look to cross the quarterback bridge next year instead. JSN is my favorite receiver in this draft and I think he could help fill the void left by AJ Brown last year the Titans never addressed. He’s a dynamic slot receiver who runs sharp routes and has great wiggle, even if he lacks the elite top end speed. He was Ohio State’s top playmaker two seasons ago in an offense that also had Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, and I think he’d quickly become both Tannehill’s favorite target in Tennessee and a crucial piece around a new QB, whenever that day comes.
12. Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
While I have some concerns about Levis in the NFL, getting him at 12 is a much, much smaller risk than getting him at 2 for the Texans. He lacks a ton of polish and has major issues with turnovers. At the same time, Levis has the kind of arm talent that every NFL team wants in a quarterback. He is by no means a sure thing, and perhaps Houston finds itself in a position next year where taking Caleb Williams is a better option than banking on Levis. Or maybe it all works out.
13. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
It is now Jordan Love’s time in Green Bay, and keeping him upright is vital. Green Bay could look to go receiver or tight end here, as playmakers in the pass game remain a considerable need, but a QB’s true best friend is a great offensive line. I think Jones has the most upside of any of this year’s tackles, as he was just an absolute monster for Georgia. The Packers struggled at times protecting Aaron Rodgers and while Jones is a bit raw still, the tools are all there to be an anchor for the future on a Packers team that will be looking to grow alongside a new QB, whether that’s Love or someone else they target in 2024.
14. New England Patriots: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
New England’s offense was a disaster last season, in part due to its struggles along the offensive line. Whether you think Skoronski is a tackle or his short arms makes him a guard, it doesn’t really matter, because he’d immediately step in and help keep Mac Jones upright. The dude is going to be a very good offensive lineman in the NFL for a long time, and with a new offensive coordinator joining the fray in Bill O’Brien, shoring things up along the line must be a high priority. Bijan Robinson also seems to be a popular pick here in the mock draft universe, and he’d certainly be a fun building block.
15. New York Jets (via Green Bay Packers): Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
The Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers and if Skoronski were still available to bolster the offensive line, that’d be the pick here. That said, Robert Saleh is still a defensive coach and they have invested an awful lot this offseason on the offensive side already. I think he’ll be pushing for some more juice on the defensive front, and Van Ness has the traits and build to be tantalizing to Saleh and the Jets. The Iowa standout has room to grow and add some more bulk on his 6’5 frame, but he’s already got excellent strength, athleticism, and length on the edge to be a handful for opposing tackles.
16. Washington Commanders: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
We’re right in Joey Porter Jr. range, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Commanders took the rangy cornerback out of Penn State. Instead, I think they’re going to try and bolster the offensive line for their quarterback of the future, whether it’s someone currently on the roster (Sam Howell) or someone in college right now (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye). Wright is big and strong, and while you can debate if his long-term future is at tackle or guard, he’ll help keep the team’s quarterback from getting sacked and give their various running backs plenty of space to run through.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
We are going to reunite Kenny Pickett with his favorite target from Pitt, trying to create a Great Value version of the Ja’Marr Chase-Joe Burrow pairing in Cincinnati. They were dynamic together with the Panthers in 2021, with Addison being a big reason Pickett looked good enough to vault into being a first round pick. This is a Steelers team in need of more playmaking help, so why wouldn’t you add the receiver you know has a great connection with your QB? Addison also proved last year with USC that his game travels and his impact can be great in different systems, and he lands in a comfortable spot here to thrive as a rookie.
18. Detroit Lions: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
The questions about Kancey’s size are very real. He’s also an explosive defensive tackle who plays with a real edge and lived in backfields during his time in the Steel City, and his speed is a real handful for IOLs to deal with — it is worth mentioning, however, that the very easy to make Aaron Donald comps (small, ferocious DT from Pitt) is a bit off base. Perhaps he ends up getting to the league and his size is impossible for him to overcome, but he’s the sort of guys you bet on, especially for a Lions team that needs help in the trenches.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
I think Tampa probably looks to trade down if the board shakes out this way, because they can’t really address the tackle situation with the top-4 prospects all off the board. If they do stick in this spot, I still think they have to go O-line and bring the gigantic guard down I-4 from Gainesville to beef up the interior of their line that is in need of some help. Torrence is just a behemoth inside, with incredible strength in both pass pro and run blocking. He’s not a guy that’s going to be pulling and getting out in front a ton, but that’s not really Tampa’s style anyway.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Getting Jalen Carter and Myles Murphy would be one hell of a draft for Seattle. Murphy looks the part as a game-changing edge rusher in the NFL, he possesses impressive athleticism, and he consistently put up good numbers during his time as a Tiger. With a bit more polish, he’ll turn into a very good player at the position for a Seahawks squad that is well-positioned for the future.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Flowers’ versatility would be a huge boost for the Chargers, who need some more receiver depth behind their star duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Flowers can very comfortably step into the slot between those two, but given the injury woes that have plagued both of those vets over the years, his ability to play outside if one of them goes down would be extremely valuable. Justin Herbert could use a weapon with some juice, and Flowers would bring that in spades.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Boy, this would be funny. Everything about Porter seems like a perfect fit in Baltimore — he’s a tall, lanky cornerback who plays with a real edge and is at his best manning up opposing receivers. The issue is that his dad is a Pittsburgh Steelers legend who made a career out of tormenting the Ravens. Still, while Joey Sr. probably wouldn’t like this, Joey Jr. would be an outstanding fit on the other side of Marlon Humphrey in Baltimore’s secondary.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
There’s some rumblings that Minnesota could go QB here and make Hendon Hooker the fifth QB taken in this year’s first round, but if they don’t, defensive back is an area of need. Banks has good size and strength, which made his sensational Combine testing (4.35 second 40, 42″ vertical, 11’4 broad jump) all the more impressive. Minnesota could use a player with his skills after getting lit up on a few occasions by opposing passing attacks, including their Wild Card loss to New York.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
While I like the idea of going with Dalton Kincaid/Michael Mayer here and giving the team a natural replacement in case Evan Engram leaves, Branch is a smart, instinctive, and productive football player who would immediately elevate Jacksonville’s secondary. His size and testing numbers weren’t elite, but if you watch him play, you’d have no clue. Branch is awesome, and the Jags would be better for rolling with him.
25. New York Giants: Steve Avila, IOL, TCU
There are a lot of ways for the Giants to go here, but they don’t have a center currently, which isn’t ideal. Avila has started at both guard spots and center in his tenure at TCU (he was the left guard last year, center in 2021), which is the kind of versatility that is very nice to have up front. He’s a very large, powerful blocker with good feet and his years of experience make me think he could step in and be the Giants center on Day 1. Whether they want to reach here for a center is the biggest question. There are a few — Avila, John Michael Schmitz, Joe Tippmann — who all have Day 2 grades, but might be gone by the time the Giants are on the clock again, unless they can find a team in the early 30s who wants to move up.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
My best player in this class goes at 26. Ezekiel Elliott is gone, while Tony Pollard is both coming off of a season-ending injury and is slated to hit free agency next year. Robinson does everything you want at running back — he has impressive size and speed, he’s good pass catcher, and his vision is the best in his class. He’ll immediately be one of the best backs in the NFL and I’d throw $5 on his Offensive Rookie of the Year odds if he heads to a team like Dallas that values running the football behind a big offensive line.
27. Buffalo Bills: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Gabe Davis’ inconsistency means the Bills still could use some help at the receiver position opposite Stefon Diggs, and Johnston would be a strong option. His size and ability to stretch the field vertically would be perfect for Josh Allen, and he would also provide a jump-ball threat in the red zone opposite Diggs. There’s a lot of directions the Bills could take with this pick, as last year proved they’re a bit further away from being a top contender than initially thought. Still, the focal point of this team is the passing game and bolstering that with Johnston wouldn’t be a bad idea at all.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Unless there’s an Irv Smith breakout coming, Cincinnati could use a tight end to replace Hayden Hurst (and, if you wanna go back two years, C.J. Uzomah). While Michael Mayer is the best all-around tight end in this class, Kincaid is a matchup nightmare in the passing game and is coming along as a blocker. He’d give Joe Burrow a safety blanket in the passing game, especially if the Bengals end up needing to make a difficult decision on Tee Higgins in the not-too-distant future.
29. New Orleans Saints (via San Francisco through Miami and Denver): Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Derek Carr loves tight ends, as evidenced by Darren Waller’s productivity in Las Vegas. New Orleans has talent in the receiving corps, but doesn’t really have the type of big body over the middle Carr has always loved as a security blanket. Michael Mayer would be exactly that. The Notre Dame product is huge (6’4, 249 pounds), with good hands and body control in the passing game and is the best run blocker of the top tight ends in this year’s draft. He’s also an excellent red zone target who would require opposing secondaries to consider not giving as much attention to Chris Olave and Michael Thomas on the outside.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Bresee is a big and explosive option in the middle of the defense, although he lacks refinement at the position. With Fletcher Cox turning 33 this year, this is a pick with one eye on the future for a team that values dominating in the trenches, and it’s not hard to envision Bresee and Jordan Davis being stalwarts at the position in Philly for the next decade.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
The Chiefs saw Frank Clark walk this offseason, immediately opening up their biggest need at pass rusher. Will McDonald IV needs to add strength to hold up in the run game, but he’s an absolute freak off the edge, with speed and length that Kansas City could use initially as a pass rush specialist and hope to develop him into an every down rusher.
Note: The Miami Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick