The Houston Rockets were really the only team that came into the 2023 offseason with a lot of cap space that actually wielded it in a way to make big splashes in free agency. While most of the league was busy either re-signing players or using their cap space to absorb big contracts on the trade market, the Rockets were the one team throwing big cash around at free agents to lure them to Houston and send their rebuild into the next phase.
Houston seems ready to move on from just trying to acquire as much young talent as possible and start trying to compete for a West Play-In spot by blending their young, hopeful stars with established veterans. With Ime Udoka now onboard as head coach, the Rockets expect to take a step forward, and they had a clear plan this summer and nearly executed it in totality. However, there was one big miss in free agency that created some missteps, and now the Rockets come into the 2023-24 season with a clearly improved roster but questions about just how high they can climb in the very crowded West Play-In race.
Draft: A-
Houston will hope this is the last time they’re picking up near the top of the draft on merit rather than incredible lottery luck, and if it was they seem to have done extremely well for themselves. With the fourth overall pick they took Amen Thompson from Overtime Elite, a hyper athletic guard with size who has incredible upside, with the swing skill being him developing a reliable jump shot. Then, with the 20th pick, they got the apparent steal of the 2023 Draft, as Cam Whitmore of Villanova fell from a potential top-5 pick out of the lottery due to medical questions. He showed his talents in Summer League, earning MVP honors in Vegas, and while the health questions will be something to monitor, in the immediate the Rockets managed to nab a pair of top-10 caliber prospects with just one top-10 pick. Our Brad Rowland gave Houston a B+ for Thompson and an A for Whitmore on Draft night.
Thompson isn’t without flaws by any means, but he brings tremendous upside to the table. Amen projects to be immediately be one of the best athletes in the NBA on arrival, and his combination of on-ball playmaking and defensive potential is tantalizing. The big question is whether he’ll develop a solid jump shot, which could determine his ultimate ceiling.
From the outside, we can’t know how to evaluate this. Whitmore’s precipitous fall is shocking amid rumblings of shaky medicals. If you remove that, this would be a total and complete heist for Houston. At a certain point, nabbing a very clear top-10 talent is worth the risk for a player they were considering at 4 early in the process.
Free Agency/Contract Extensions: B
For any team trying to exit the rebuilding phase and add top talent, there is a tax to be paid, and Houston was willing to do that this summer, best evidenced by the 3-year, $130 million they gave to Fred VanVleet. That deal raised eyebrows when it was announced, but it became more palatable once details came out and we learned the third year was a team option. VanVleet is the kind of steady-handed, defensive-minded veteran point guard the Rockets were desperate to get to pair with Jalen Green in the backcourt, and they paid what they had to in order to pry him out of Toronto.
With a clear eye on upgrading their roster on the defensive side of the floor, they made a hard pursuit of Brook Lopez as well, with reports out of Houston indicating they thought they were nearing a deal — feeling so strongly they made some trades to move some money around before a deal was agreed to. Unfortunately for the Rockets, Lopez opted to stay in Milwaukee and they were left without the defensive anchor they hoped to be bringing in. The pivot for Houston was to sign Jock Landale to a 4-year, $32 million deal with just the first year guaranteed, as Landale was coming off a very solid season in Phoenix backing up Deandre Ayton. That was a fine signing, as was bringing in the ultimate veteran, Jeff Green, on a 1-year, $6 million deal.
However, considering the Rockets plan was to reshape the team by building a defensive identity via incoming veterans, missing out on Lopez — the best defender of the bunch and the guy that was going to make the plan especially viable — caused a considerable step back for Houston. They have undoubtedly made their team better this summer, but the ceiling won’t be as high as it would’ve been with Lopez anchoring a new-look defense.
Trades: C+
The other big move from the Rockets was completing a sign-and-trade for Dillon Brooks, giving him a 4-year, $86 million deal that, like VanVleet’s brought considerable sticker shock. Houston sent out Josh Christopher in the deal, which is understandable as they had a glut of scoring guards on the roster, and Brooks, again, fits the model of trying to upgrade their defense at all three levels. For all the headaches he caused at times in Memphis, he was an All-Defense performer and will legitimately help them on that end, as he and VanVleet can take on most any opposing ball-handler obligations and will immediately make their defense better. Now, the question about Brooks’ defense (and VanVleet a bit as well) is how good they’ll look without an elite level backline defender. This is, again, the issue with not landing Lopez, as Alperen Sengun and Jock Landale patrolling the rim behind you is a far cry from what Brooks had in Memphis with Jaren Jackson Jr. that allows you to be as physical and pressure ball-handlers, because when you do get beat, the penalty is lessened.
The cost on Brooks’ deal is high, and higher than most anyone anticipated he’d get, considering the only real threat for him was teams with a midlevel (which would’ve been in the $54 million range for 4 years). It’s a descending deal, which will make him a bit easier to move if they feel they need to down the road, but my biggest concern with giving Brooks that kind of deal is what he will think his role should be on offense. Forever, the issue with Brooks has been a desire to be among the leading options, taking a lot of ill-advised shots as a low-efficiency but high-volume shooter. Giving him a contract worth north of $20 million per year, making him the second-highest paid player on the team, isn’t the type of thing I’d expect to dampen his enthusiasm for taking a lot of shots, and therein lies the big risk with this contract (that, unlike VanVleet’s, does not have a team option or non-guarantee).
While you can talk yourself into the Brooks move, the rest of the trades Houston made this summer were less than ideal, simply because of why they were made. They traded TyTy Washington, Usman Garuba, and KJ Martin (alongside some second rounders and a redirected Patty Mills) to create space for a Lopez signing that never happened, ultimately folding it all into the Brooks deal with Christopher heading to Memphis. That’s just bad process and asset management by Houston’s front office. Whether that was a matter of Lopez walking back on something or not, you can’t make those trades until you have a firm agreement. As such, I don’t grade this as a particularly successful summer of trades, even if they did accomplish one of their goals in bringing Brooks onto the roster who will make them better.
My only issue with this summer of moves from Houston was their inability to address the center position, which is the most important in terms of building a strong defense. Having better defenders at the point of attack and on the wing is undoubtedly going to help them and they are unquestionably a better team than they were last year, but missing out on Lopez (and making the trades they did to facilitate a deal that never went down) keeps this from being a completely successful summer.