If you have bet on, or even followed, NFL football for long enough, you might know that the maddening losses stick in one’s head much more than perhaps the fortunate wins. That is certainly the case from Week 9 of the 2023 season in this space. At the top level, we posted a 3-2 mark and that is never something to scoff at in the ultra-difficult world of NFL evaluation. With that caveat out of the way, the two losses were rather excruciating.
The Carolina Panthers threw not one, but two pick-sixes on the way to a 14-point loss in a game in which they were catching 8.5 points on a teaser. The Panthers out-gained the Colts by more than 75 total yards, held Indianapolis to fewer than 200 (!) total yards, and still didn’t get there. The other frustrating defeat came with the Dallas Cowboys in a national game that many consumed. Dallas had a turnover at the three-inch line when they threw a pass (?) short of the goal line on 4th and goal. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott also stepped out of bounds on a two-point conversion that would’ve covered the game for some (including us) and pushed for others. Then, Dallas had yet another chance to score in the final seconds before completely imploding. Dallas finished with 5.8 yards per play to 4.9 for Philadelphia and out-gained the Eagles by more than 100 yards.
Yes, I’m bitter.
At any rate, Week 10 brings another set of challenges, and before we get to our five selections, let’s take stock.
- Week 9: 3-2
- 2023 Season: 25-17-3
Come get these winners.
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) over Chicago Bears — Caesars
Look, I don’t like this any more than you do, but we must stand on principle. The Bears are laying more than a field goal with Tyson Bagent? I might have to swear off the Panthers if this goes poorly, but it also helps to get more than a field goal with a total in the 30’s.
Green Bay Packers (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers — FanDuel
We’ve had the Steelers a couple of times this season, and I think Mike Tomlin might be a wizard. Pittsburgh is somehow 5-3 with a -30 (!) point differential, and it’s time to fade. Green Bay hasn’t exactly dominated this season either, but I like this with a full field goal.
TEASER: Cincinnati Bengals (-0.5) over Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills (-1) over Denver Broncos — – FanDuel
This isn’t my favorite kind of teaser, and it’s pretty square. I still like it. Houston earned a lot of attention with last week’s win, and CJ Stroud is the real deal. The Texans are banged-up, though, and now facing a different level of competition on the road in Cincinnati. Then, on Monday, I’m buying low on the Bills again at home. That one is pretty straight-ahead and Denver’s two-game winning streak helped us to get this in range.
Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints UNDER 41 points — DraftKings
Josh Dobbs pushed the Vikings to a memorable win last week and the Saints covered half of a teaser for us. This also feels like a game that should be an utter slugfest. Neither team has played a great schedule when it comes to opposing defenses, and Minnesota appears likely to lean more toward the run with Josh Dobbs and injuries to pass-catchers. I also trust the Saints defense and 41 is a key number to grab.
Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns UNDER 38.5 points — FanDuel
AFC North slugfests! Both teams rank in the top three of the NFL in scoring defense and total defense. Cleveland is No. 1 in defensive DVOA. Baltimore is No. 2 in defensive DVOA. Both teams want to run the ball. I know this is a low total, but Baltimore is 10-6 to the Under in the last 16 division games. Cleveland is 9-5-1. Let’s do this.