Which NBA Conference Semifinals Series Will Go Seven Games?

All four series in the NBA playoffs are in the same spot. With the conference semifinals well underway, each series has one team holding a 2-1 lead over the other, which should lead to some really compelling basketball over the next week or so.

Game 4 is the unofficial turning point in a series like this, because depending on the result, a series will either find itself on the brink of being over, or with a completely clean slate as it turns into a best 2-out-of-3 sprint to the finish. Ahead of our first two Game 4s on Sunday, we took a look at the state of things in each series and tried to figure out which ones are most likely to end up going the distance.

4. Boston vs. Cleveland (Boston currently leads, 2-1)

Unfortunately for the Cavs, it’d take something completely out of left field for a 7-game series. Yes, Cleveland has a path if it can just defend its homecourt in Games 4 and 6, but the Cavs desperately need Donovan Mitchell to be the best player on the court, and at least one of Darius Garland or Evan Mobley to have a monster game, and everyone else to be a threat from three. That was the recipe that led to them winning Game 2 in Boston — a really great win for them, to be clear — but it’s really, really hard to replicate that against a Celtics team that bounced back in a big way during Game 3. If Boston brings its A-game (or, frankly, even its B-game), they should be able to prevent Cleveland from getting this to a Game 7.

3. Indiana vs. New York (New York currently leads, 2-1)

This is easily the most fun series so far, for my money, and not having it higher is 100 percent due to the fact that each team is dealing with some pretty insane injuries right now. The Knicks were beyond compromised coming into the series, with Bojan Bogdanovic and Julius Randle both out and Mitchell Robinson nowhere near full capacity. Now, Robinson’s playoffs are effectively done, OG Anunoby has a bad hamstring that might cost him significant time, and Jalen Brunson is now dealing with a bad foot on top of whatever other bumps and bruises he has. For Indiana, Tyrese Haliburton is listed as questionable for Game 4 because of, well, everything.

They also haven’t had Bennedict Mathurin this entire run, and Aaron Nesmith is dealing with a shoulder injury. Anyway, we’re in a spot where this series is going seven games if the teams can defend their respective home courts. This could be higher based off of that, but we’ll knock it down a bit just because of how injuries have the potential to derail this series for one team — on the other hand, one could argue both being beat up means it’s more likely to go the distance.

2. Dallas vs. Oklahoma City (Dallas currently leads, 2-1)

Luka Doncic’s health hangs over this series, because if he is physically compromised to a significant degree, Dallas is going to have its hands full. But when it comes to getting to a Game 7, Dallas only needs to win one more game after hanging on to a Game 3 win to go up 2-1, which they can absolutely do. On the other side, Oklahoma City has to win two of the next three with only one of those games coming at home, which makes the task difficult but certainly not impossible. Perhaps the young Thunder struggle as they find themselves with an uphill battle ahead of them, or maybe this P.J. Washington recent heater ends and Kyrie Irving’s slow starts to games end up being incredibly costly for Dallas given Doncic not being at 100 percent. Both of these teams are quite good, and Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are two of the best players left in the playoffs. Every game could very easily be a coin flip, which bodes well for a long series.

1. Denver vs. Minnesota (Minnesota currently leads, 2-1)

The Nuggets showed off some real chutzpah during Game 3. After losing both games on their home court — one when the Wolves did not have the services of Rudy Gobert — Denver went into Minnesota and ran them off the floor. They looked so much more deliberate than they did in the first two games in the series, when Minnesota’s athleticism, size, and tenacity really seemed to bug them. We’re now in a situation where the Wolves absolutely have to win Game 4, because giving up homecourt advantage after taking two games off of the Nuggets in Denver is a dangerous, dangerous situation. Still, these teams are fairly evenly matched, and neither one is going to go down without a fight. And when it comes to a potential Game 7, it’d require two more wins for Denver and one more for Minnesota, which is totally plausible.